The presidential election is also a part of Israel's calculation, not least the fractious relationship between Obama and Netanyahu, who has little reason to do the US president any political favours and has good reason to prefer a Republican in the White House next year.
There is a school of thought – a suspicion, even – within the administration that Netanyahu might consider the height of the US election campaign the ideal time to attack Iran. With a hawkish Republican candidate ever ready to accuse him of weakness, Obama's room to pressure or oppose Netanyahu would be more limited than after the election.
"One theory is that Netanyahu and Barak may calculate that if Obama doesn't support an Israeli strike, he's unlikely to punish Israel for taking unilateral action in a contested election year," said Kahl. "Doing something before the US gives the Israelis a bit more freedom of manoeuvre."
Obama is also under domestic political pressure from Republican presidential contenders, who accuse him of vacillating on Iran, and from a Congress highly sympathetic to Israel's more confrontational stance.
Kahl's words are most likely worth paying attention to. He made an outstanding case for not attacking Iran in Foreign Policy magazine last month. And the notion that Bibi would launch his own October Surprise to get rid of President Obama by forcing him to immediately attack Iran or face the wrath of the Israel lobby in the US can't be completely discounted.
But it's also entirely possible that the "rally 'round the flag" effect would have the opposite effect if the President did assist Israel, which is why I'm almost certain Israel wouldn't do anything like this if the ultimate goal is to get a GOP president back in the White House.
Still, the larger issue is that Israel's PM could possibly decide our Presidential election for us. I find that disturbing to say the least.
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