Public opinion on gay marriage is pretty straightforward. There's a huge generational divide - with older voters solidly opposed, and younger voters solidly supportive. Over time, support for gay marriage should increase. And if Obama came out in support of gay marriage, he would probably excite and inspire many college-aged Democrats to show up at the polls and support him -- not to mention winning back some socially-moderate independents who have been disenchanted with the president over the economy.
But college-aged voters are only part of the president's coalition. The bigger element consists of African-American voters, who are solidly opposed to gay marriage. California's Proposition 8 ban on same-sex marriage passed in 2008 thanks to overwhelming black support; 70 percent backed it, according to exit polls. Recent gay marriage legislation in Maryland drew opposition from leading Democratic African-American legislators in the state. The same ministers organizing get-out-the-vote efforts in black churches for Obama are also railing against gay marriage.
Obama can't afford to even risk losing the deep enthusiasm black voters have towards him. They gave Obama a whopping 95 percent of the vote against John McCain last year and turned out at historic levels. He should get similar levels of support this year, but with the down economy disproportionately affecting the black community, he's not at all assured that they'll turn out at the same level as 2008. Backing gay marriage would virtually guarantee that some would stay home - perhaps enough to tip the balance in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio.
My main problem with this is the assumption that African-Americans are being singled out for this, because according to Krausharr, we're homophobic bigots. That "70% of black voters backing Prop 8" in California has been thrown at blacks relentlessly over the last three years as well. The reality is more complex and more detailed.
Since the passage of Proposition 8, much has been said about the supposed dramatic opposition to marriage equality among African Americans, fueled by National Election Pool (NEP) figures based on sampling in only a few precincts that erroneously indicated 70 percent of California’s African Americans supported Proposition 8. The study found that when religious service attendance was factored out, however, there was no significant difference between African Americans and other groups.
In other words, people of all races and ethnicities who worship at least once a week overwhelmingly supported Proposition 8, with support among white, Asian and Latino frequent churchgoers actually being greater than among African Americans.
There's also the rather inconvenient fact that anti gay marriage votes in states with tiny black populations also passed, states like Kentucky, Montana, Oregon, and South Dakota. It certainly wasn't black voters who made the difference there. And note what the unifying factor is in opposition to same-sex marriage among all races seems to be: religion. Specifically, devout evangelical Christianity in the Southern US. Where do the majority of African-Americans live in the United States? The Southern US. Yes, black pastors in Maryland did oppose same-sex marriage. So did white pastors. And the bill passed anyway.
The problem with singling out African-Americans as people who will jump ship as opposed to whites, evangelicals, or older Americans if President Obama comes out for gay marriage is that it isn't completely fair to do so. We know what it's like to be second-class citizens. This one in particular backs gay marriage as a right.
I'm hoping that President Obama will do the right thing sooner rather than later. But let's not dump the entirely of the political cost he'll pay for doing so -- and there will be a political cost -- on African-Americans alone. That's unfair and incorrect.
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