Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Doing O-Kay For Herself, Thanks

North Carolina's GOP led Visigoth sacking of state abortion and voting rights laws have produced some minor silver lining-type material in the fact that NC Dem Sen. Kay Hagan is looking significantly stronger heading into her 2014 reelection campaign.

The biggest winner coming out of the North Carolina legislative session might be Kay Hagan. She leads her two most likely Republican opponents, Thom Tillis and Phil Berger, by 8 points each at 47/39.

Beyond that though it's clear that the actions of the General Assembly this year make voters hesitant to give either of their legislative leaders a promotion. 49% of voters say they're less likely to support the Speaker of the House for the Senate because of what happened during this session to only 19% who are more likely to. And 41% are less likely to support the President Pro Tem of the State Senate for the US Senate, to 18% who are more likely to.

Tillis and Berger still have low name recognition- 44% and 38% respectively- but voters know they're unhappy with what the people in their offices did regardless of whether they know their names at this point, and that will give Hagan a lot to work with in her campaign. Overall the General Assembly has a 24% approval rating with 54% of voters disapproving of it.

Hagan has leads of 7-11 points against her other potential opponents as well. Jim Cain comes closest with a 7 point deficit at 46/39, followed by Greg Brannon (47/38), Virginia Foxx (48/39), and Mark Harris (46/37) with 9 point deficits, Heather Grant with a 10 point gap at 47/37, and Lynn Wheeler with an 11 point one at 47/36.

Virginia Foxx remains the top choice of North Carolina Republicans to be their candidate next year amidst renewed speculation that she might be interested in a bid. 

So Thom Tillis has an anvil around his neck as NC House Speaker, and Phil Berger has an equally heavy burden around his as leader of the State Senate.  And the Tea Party loonies want Virginia Foxx as a candidate?  Oh please let that happen: Hagan'll win by, well, close to double digits.  It'll be more the moment Foxx opens her mouth.  And there's this:

One thing that's quite clear is that GOP voters will be doing what they can to pull their candidates far to the right- 57% support shutting down the government unless Obamacare is defunded to only 25% who oppose that concept.

That's not going to help Foxx in the general, and it means Tillis and Berger are going to have to stake out an extremist opinion from the get-go.

Let's start this Carolina Clown Car up, shall we?


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