The Breaking Point Has Been Reached

The shutdown ends when enough purple district House Republicans face enough of a threat over the shutdown clown show that the GOP is in danger of losing control of the House in 2014, regardless of the threats the Tea Party makes.

We may have now reached that point according to Public Policy Polling.

The government shutdown is already hurting the GOP in battleground congressional districts, according to new polling in two dozen districts currently controlled by Republicans. 

The surveys, commissioned by the liberal group MoveOn.org Political Action and conducted by Public Policy Polling, suggest that the government shutdown may already be having a bigger impact than most analysts realize. 

"Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House. These poll results make clear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach," said pollster Jim Williams. "The surveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats." 

We're still 13 months out from next year's midterm elections and the shutdown isn't even over yet, so it's too soon to draw any conclusions, but this new survey data is supported by national polls that suggest Americans are more likely to blame Republicans for the shutdown than President Obama and other Democrats. Two polls released last week, from CBS and Fox News, each found that the public blames Republicans over Democrats by about a 10 point margin. Only about 20 percent blamed both sides evenly.

The new PPP polls were conducted on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week, with sample sizes of between 600-700 registered voters in each of the 24 districts they surveyed. Most of the districts, including several in California, New York, Ohio, and Florida, are considered competitive. 

In 17 of the districts, PPP found the Republican incumbent trailing a generic Democrat in a head-to-head contest among registered voters. Most of the incumbents' approval ratings were underwater, meaning more respondents disapproved than approved.

Dems need 17 seats to take back the House.  PPP finds 17 House Republicans are in danger of losing their seats, including locally here in the OH/KY area, Andy Barr in KY-6 (down 50-42% versus a generic Democrat, 50-33% say they are less likely to vote for Barr because of the shutdown) and David Joyce in OH-14 (down 47-44% vs Generic D and 50-34 less likely to vote for him over the shutdown).  In OH-6, Bill Johnson is up 41-35 over a generic Dem, but 41-40 voters are less likely to vote for him, so Johnson's seat is in play.

Of course, you can scream THE POLLS ARE SKEWED all you want to, Republicans.  Just like that coming Romney landslide in 2012 when you said the same thing.

How'd that work out for you, Republicans?  Cause it's about to happen again.