The Clock's Started On The Marriage Equality Endgame

With the state of Utah appealing the 10th Circuit's ruling overturning the state's same-sex marriage ban as unconstitutional to the Supreme Court this week, the finish line is in sight for making marriage equality the law across the country.

Suddenly it's a possibility that experts are contemplating: marriage equality could be the law of the land all across the United States within one year. 

On Wednesday, Utah asked the Supreme Court to resolve its dispute with the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals which two weeks ago became the first U.S. circuit court to declare that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry.

Legal experts say the Supreme Court is likely to accept the case. With lawsuits piling up, and gay marriage on an undefeated legal streak since the Court axed the Defense of Marriage Act in 2013, the justices may plausibly hear the case in next term and decide it by June 2015. 

"I think the Court will take the case. Since [U.S. v.] Windsor, all of the lower courts that have ruled have struck down laws prohibiting same sex marriages," said Erwin Chemerinsky, the Dean of the University of California, Irvine School of Law. "Perhaps without a split in the lower courts, the Supreme Court will wait. My prediction, though, is that the Court knows the issue needs to be resolved and will take it." 

And if the Court does hear the case, all eyes will be on Justice Anthony Kennedy, not simply because he's the traditional swing vote, but because he has written all three decisions in Supreme Court history that advanced gay rights. 

"I also predict that the five justices in the majority in Windsor will be the majority to declare unconstitutional laws that deny marriage equality to gays and lesbians," Chemerinsky said.

And yes, it would be a 5-4 Justice Kennedy decision, certainly.  I can't imagine any of the other justices, save maybe Chief Justice Roberts, wanting to be on the right side of history, morality, and humanity for once.  We'll see how it shakes out, but it's entirely possible that sometime next June, a whole lot of people are going to be very, very blessed.

Well, and the massive wailing and gnashing of teeth from the God Squad certainly won't hurt either.

Still, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Kennedy and friends will completely ignore decades of precedent if it's an opportunity to put Obama "in his place".

We'll see.