Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Last Call For Clinton Kentucky

I've been holding out hope that Hillary Clinton could win here in Kentucky in 2016 and help beat Rand Paul, but the other half of that Public Policy Polling survey on Kentucky shows that Kentucky Democrats are mostly Reagan Democrats, and Clinton will have an extremely tough battle here.

On the Democratic side Clinton is ever dominant, getting 56% to 12% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Jim Webb, 5% for Lincoln Chafee, and 3% for Martin O'Malley. Clinton is over 80% with African Americans, 70% with liberals, 60% with younger voters, and 50% with moderates, women, men, whites, and seniors. The only group she fails to get a majority with is the swath of Kentucky Democrats who are conservatives and don't tend to vote Democratic in national elections despite their registration.

Clinton doesn't have much of a chance in the general election in the state outside of ending up running against Trump though. Paul (50/40) and Huckabee (49/39) fare the best against Clinton with 10 point leads. Carson has a 9 point lead at 49/40 and Bush's is 8 points at 48/40. Holding more modest leads over Clinton are Cruz with a 6 point one at 48/42, and Walker (46/41), Rubio (46/41), and Fiorina (45/40) each with a 5 point advantage.

But before you go believing that it's Clinton they dislike, understand that any of the other Democratic hopefuls fare even worse here in the Bluegrass State.

Clinton may not do great in Kentucky but it's really bad for any of the other Democratic hopefuls. Scott Walker would lead Sanders 42/29, O'Malley 40/22, Chafee 41/23, and Webb 42/22. Obviously that has a lot to do with name recognition but it's still somewhat jarring to see potential Democratic candidates polling in the low 20s for the general election in any state.

So Clinton would lose by 5-10 points here and any other Dem would lose by double digits.  It's not looking good here for Team Blue.  Yes, it's 16 months out and anything could happen, but I'm thinking the Clinton campaign isn't going to be making very many visits here.

Ask Alison Grimes how much Hillary was able to help last year.

1 comment:

Horace Boothroyd III said...

You just have to clap harder, host Zandar. Now that Bernie has uttered the magic slogans the incipient army of leftists has begun to rise up in the hills and dales of Kentucky - and all across this verdant land - and will in a couple of months rout the Corporatist Democrats and their Republican Allies to usher in the Socialist Utopia of non-GMO gluten free crackers and a vegan textured soy protein turkey in every pot. You just have to BELIEVE!

Refusing as I do to clap at all, your news comes as disappointing but hardly surprising. Some people had their hearts set on Lundergan Grimes, but I didn't lose any scheckels betting on that race. I can not offer any advice on how to fix the situation, which tugs at my conscience but I do actually keep my mouth closed when I don't know what I am talking about. Perhaps the time has come to discuss the Lincoln '60 Strategy again.

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