Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass argues that if the Laquan McDonald video had come out a year ago when the shooting actually happened, Rahm Emanuel would have been annihilated in the city's mayoral runoff election.
If the video had been out, if Chicago had watched it before going to the polls, Emanuel would have lost the black vote. You'd have to be a meat puppet to think otherwise. And you're not a meat puppet, are you?
But just to make sure of my theory, I called the one guy who'd know: Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, the mayor's opponent in the 2015 election.
"Yes," Garcia told me over the phone. "That video would definitely have changed the political environment.
"The rug would have been pulled out from under many political leaders' feet. Things would have been different," he said.
"And now, with the video out and people seeing it, everywhere I go people ask me about it. Everywhere I go people tell me it would have been a game changer. If people had seen it, they would have said, this city is so corrupt, it's time for a change."
But they didn't see it, until it was too late.
"There's just some basic Chicago arithmetic in there. He wouldn't have received as much votes from the African-American community," Garcia said. "It isn't rocket science. It's arithmetic. And so yes, this tragic video would have had a profound impact."
Which is why Rahm didn't want it to be seen, why he had to do everything to keep it under wraps. And he did do everything to keep it under wraps, until the other day.
"And that's the Chicago Way," Garcia said.
Yes it is.
Exit question: Why is Rahm still Mayor now after this?