Friday, November 13, 2015

Poll Positioning In Louisiana

Two new polls out this week show Democrat John Bel Edwards with a massive lead over Sen. David Vitter to succeed Bobby Jindal in the Louisiana gubernatorial race. Market Research has Edwards up by 14, 52-38%, and a University of New Orleans poll has Edwards up by an even larger 18-point margin, 54-36%.

Here's the question though: considering the polls in Kentucky were universally off by 14 points, where a 5-point Conway lead turned into a substantial 9-point Bevin victory, are these two polls anywhere near being close to correct?

I think there's considerable doubt in an off-year, low-turnout runoff that's not even being held on Election Day, that a Democrat is winning in Louisiana in 2015 by 14 to 18 points.  The people who actually vote aren't the people who are being polled, and that shift towards Vitter will only be magnified by the low turnout.

Do not be surprised if Vitter makes this a nailbiter, or if he manages to pull out a win.  Polling across the board in 2015 has been rotten.

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