Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Can Hillary Win In Bevinstan?

As Joe Sonka points out ahead of today's Kentucky Democratic primary:

Of course he's talking about the now infamous Bluegrass Polls showing Jack Conway with a five-point lead heading into last November, only for him to end up losing by 8.

So we don't have very much polling at all heading into today. A Public Policy Polling survey from early March had Clinton up 5.  That's it.  Nobody else has bothered to touch the state since November's catastrophe.  So I have no idea who's going to win.

Clinton, for her part, is going hard here.

Hillary Clinton, looking to stem a string of late-in-the-calendar wins by rival Bernie Sanders, is investing heavily in Kentucky ahead of its Tuesday primary. 
The former secretary of state's campaign has launched both television and radio ads in the state's major markets and dispatched more than a dozen surrogates to turn out voters in the days before the primary. Clinton has also personally invested time: She will have headlined 11 campaign stops over three trips in the last two weeks by the time Kentucky Democrats go to the polls. 
"It is a great honor to be here with you and I hope to earn your support in the primary on Tuesday," Clinton said at St. Stephens Baptist Church in Southwest Louisville on Sunday. "I hope to have the opportunity to serve you as your president." 
This investment marks a notable change from her efforts ahead of a narrow-loss in Indiana's primary two weeks ago, where Clinton spent little time campaigning and was outspent $2 million to $0 in advertising. 
After the loss some aides suggested with a little investment the former secretary of state could have won the primary and come closer to putting away Sanders, the Vermont senator who has pledged to campaign into June. Clinton and her aides don't want to make that mistake again, especially given they already anticipate a loss in Oregon, the other state voting Tuesday. 
Clinton visited Paducah, Kentucky, on Monday, stopping in at the Little Castle diner. The meeting was meant to be an off-the-record stop, but excited local Democrats told reporters and the place was filled when Clinton walked in. 
"Everybody's ready to go vote," Clinton said. "I'll tell you this: I'm not going to give up on Kentucky in November."

So she very well might win.  I don't know.  She's trying to win the state over and might have a serious chance if the Republicans really do put a third-party bid into play like Big Dog did in 1992 and 1996, but outside of that, Trump is going to win here by 15-20 points.

It's good that she's not giving up on the state.  We have too many "progressives" giving up on Kentucky as it is. And yes, this means I'm voting for her.

We'll see what happens later tonight.

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