Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Our Poll Arised Nation, Con't

Two polls out today showing the race for the White House going off in completely different directions.  First, Reuters is out with a new national poll showing Hillary Clinton with a major lead:

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Republican rival Donald Trump to 13 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, up from 10 points at the end of last week. 
The July 8-12 poll showed 46 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the former secretary of state, while 33 percent supported Trump, a celebrity real estate developer. Another 21 percent did not support either candidate. 
That compared with 45 percent who supported Clinton and 35 percent who supported Trump in the five days to July 8. 
Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has mostly led in the national online poll this year. The last time Trump came close to Clinton's popularity was in early May, when his last two rivals for the Republican nomination dropped out of the race and party leaders started to line up behind his campaign.

Trump, who is expected to become the official Republican nominee at the party's convention next week, has since lost ground in the poll as he struggled to refocus his campaign from the Republican nominating contests to the Nov. 8 general election.

The poll also shows Clinton breaking even on popularity, where Trump is mired in the upper 30's. That however is a far cry from the latest Quinnipiac swing state poll of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, showing Trump leading or tied with Clinton and Trump winning all three states when third party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson are factored in.

With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show: 
  • Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
  • Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;
  • Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
  • Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
  • Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
"Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Needless to say, at least one of these polls is badly, badly wrong.  If Reuters is correct, Hillary Clinton is on her way to an historic landslide victory, where a 13 point lead would end up giving her possible wins in previously safe, deep red states like Texas, Tennessee, Alaska, and even Kentucky, setting up a complete Republican wipeout in November that would totally reverse the last six years of GOP gains in Congress.

But if Quinnipiac is right, it's entirely possible that both national third party candidates may end up in double digits and give Trump the wins across the Rust Belt that he has to have in order to win in November and possibly putting other Rust Belt blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and even Illinois and Minnesota into serious contention for Trump and the GOP.  That in turn could relegate the Democrats to a regional coastal minority for the next decade.

The truth, dear reader, is somewhere in between, I suspect.  There's no way I believe that Clinton is ahead by 13 nationally, but there's no way I believe that Trump is ahead in Florida by five and PA by six points right now, either.  The Reuters poll is probably closer to the truth, but it's not nor will it ever be a double digit lead unless Trump completely crashes.

On the gripping hand, the new McClatchy poll showing Clinton ahead 42-39 while only getting 81% of the black vote, only 57% of Sanders supporters, and only 52% of the Latino vote is complete nonsense.

I suspect we'll have a clearer picture come August once the conventions are over.

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