Monday, August 1, 2016

Last Call For The Bouncy Castle

As Donald Trump got a bounce from the Republican convention two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton got one from last week's Democratic convention and is now firmly back in the lead.

Hillary Clinton has received a bump in support after the Democratic convention and has now pulled ahead of Donald Trump. 
Forty-six percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June. 
Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention. 
When compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees, Clinton's bounce is similar to those President Obama got in 2012 and 2008, but short of the 13-point bounce her husband, Bill Clinton, received in 1992. In 2000, support for Al Gore rose 10 points after the Democratic convention, but he went on to lose a close race that fall.

Indeed, 538's daily election forecast shows a big reversion back to a Clinton lead in the overall post-convention polling from the weekend.

A couple things from that CBS poll: Clinton maintains her lead with college-educated white voters. If that holds up through election day, she wins.  Also, one in six registered independent voters say that they definitely will not vote this year, but independent voters tend to be older, white male voters: Trump's base.  If that's true, that also helps Clinton.

Still, as August opens we're a good 90+ days away from the election, a lifetime in politics.  It's also getting close to the time for pollsters to start switching to their "likely voters" versus "registered voters" models, and that's where we're going to see stuff all over the place until we have multiple polls in with those models, probably starting next month.

Finally, we'll start seeing more state polls too.  Those are going to be very interesting "likely voter" models this time around.

In other words, expect a lot of jumps in polls one way or another through August and into Labor Day week, where traditionally polls start getting more serious and consistent.

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