Monday, August 8, 2016

The Coming Av-Hill-Lanche, Con't

Monmouth University's latest presidential poll shows Hillary Clinton at the all-important 50% mark in their likely voter model, but a whopping 13 points ahead of The Donald.
Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters. 
Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).
Independents are divided between Trump (32%) and Clinton (30%). In the Monmouth poll taken before the two parties' conventions Trump held a 40% to 31% lead among this group. Johnson the Libertarian has picked up independent voter support in the past month, now at 16% (up from 9%) with this group, while the Green Party's Stein has remained stable at 4% (compared to 3% last month). 
Importantly, Clinton continues to maintain a lead in the swing states - ten states that were decided by less than seven points in the 2012 election. She holds a 42% to 34% edge over Trump in these states, which is similar to her 46% to 39% swing state lead last month. 
"The dust is starting to settle on the tag-team conventions, with the net advantage going to Clinton," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Not only does Monmouth's polling have an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight for accuracy, but the crosstabs (PDF) show exactly where Trump is getting obliterated.  Clinton has a whopping 55-27% lead among women, and it's nearly as bad for Trump among college graduates, 53-29%.

To put into perspective what a Clinton +13 national race would mean, we're talking LBJ vs Barry Goldwater in 1964, a map where the Republicans would be lucky to win five or six states, and where Clinton would get 500+ electoral votes.

I don't think that November will be that bad for Trump.


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