Saturday, December 31, 2016

Zandar's 2017 Predictions

Here we go again with another time capsule that we'll revisit a year from now on December 31, 2017, and we'll see how I did. 

1) President Trump's average approval rating as of the end of 2016 according to Real Clear Politics's average is 44% favorable, 48% unfavorable, and 43% favorable-48% unfavorable according to Huffpost Pollster average.  My prediction is that he's at or below 44% favorable by this date next year.

2) At least one of Trump's cabinet selections will be rejected by the Senate.  My money's on Rex Tillerson, but the Senate will not confirm all of Trump's picks.  It will be a move by Republicans to let off the growing pressure on them to rein Trump in, but in the end somebody just as bad as Tillerson will be confirmed.  I'd love for Democrats to make this a nasty mess however.

3) Republicans are already fleeing from repealing Obamacare. I'll go out on a limb and predict that no repeal bill will pass in 2017.  Republicans are just too far apart on a solution. I'll take the split here if a repeal bill passes but the actual repeal part doesn't happen until after the 2018 election. I'll take full credit though if that repeal date should be after the 2020 election, which is definitely possible.

4) Harry Reid left the Dems the option to Bork a Trump Supreme Court pick.  I expect that will happen at least once (remember Harriet Miers?) I'll take the split if a second pick is confirmed before the end of the year, but Trump won't get his first pick.

5) All this shouting about the United Nations won't change anything: the US will continue to fund the UN as normal.  I could see a symbolic cut, but nothing about ending funding to the UN, it's simply too important.

6) Likewise, all of Trump's bankster choices for his cabinet and advisors means the debt ceiling will be raised on time.  That will happen quickly.

I expect plenty of new GOP legislation out before the end of the year:

7) A national 20-week ban on abortions will make it through the House.

8) National Voter ID will make it through the House at least.

9) Medicare and Social Security "reform" will also make it through the House.  I expect all of these to die in the Senate.

10) And as always, ZVTS will make it too.  It wasn't a gimme as it has been in the past, I've considered hanging it up, but decided that Trump was just too much of a threat to stop this place.

We'll see how things turn out.

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