Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Last Call For Close But No Cigar...Yet

It looks like James Thompson will go down to defeat, but a surprisingly close one, in Kansas's 4th, in a district where Republican Ron Estes should have won by 20 points.  Thompson looks like his loss will be within single digits, which, while it means that Estes will keep the seat for the GOP, means that the honeymoon for Trump among Republicans is now officially over.

Reminder that this is a R+15 district, blood red and just about as safe as they come, and Thompson looks to have cut that margin in half, if not by two-thirds. Yes, it's a special election and anything goes, but if I were Republicans in Georgia right now in the 6th? I'd be scared out of my ever-loving mind.

Also keep in mind Trump won this district by almost 30 points in November.  It looks like today the GOP will carry it by only 7 or 8.  For this to happen within the first 100 days of a presidential election of a Republican is mind-blowing.  Trump isnt just an albatross, he's well past millstone or even anvil, we're talking black hole.

This district never should have been in play, and if anything within say, R+10 is viable, that's literally dozens of seats that the Dems have a shot at.  Even winning a majority of GOP seats that are R+6 or less would give the Dems the House back, and it could be a 2010-level wave that would devastate the GOP.

So, while Thompson won't be a winner, I'm betting a lot of other Dems will be, starting with Jon Ossoff next week in Georgia.

We'll see.

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