Bibi's Big Deal Breaks Down

In a sign of just how precarious the political situation of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is right now as he faces a massive bribery and corruption scandal and calls for resignation as well as growing international pressure after Israel's deadly response to Gaza protests in the last few days, it's no surprise then that a deal with the UN to resettle African migrants in order to prevent the deportation of tens of thousands has collapsed hours after being announced when Netanyahu's own party made it very clear that such a deal would lead to his ouster.

In a head-spinning turnaround, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel announced on Monday that he had reached an extraordinary deal with the United Nations refugee agency to resettle thousands of African asylum seekers in Western countries. Within hours Mr. Netanyahu suspended the deal after coming under heavy criticism from his coalition partners.

The flip-flop appeared to reflect Mr. Netanyahu’s fear of losing support from those partners or from his right-wing constituency, who call the asylum seekers infiltrators and want them gone. His opponents on the left described the prime minister’s behavior as an embarrassing and cowardly surrender under pressure.

Mr. Netanyahu, who is battling for his political future under the cloud of multiple corruption scandals and faces possible charges of bribery, had apparently failed to consult with most of his own conservative Likud Party colleagues or coalition allies before announcing the migrant deal.

If the deal with the United Nations refugee agency bought Israel some international good will, diverting attention from Friday’s flare-up along the border with Gaza when Israeli forces killed at least 15 Palestinians and wounded many more, the effect was short-lived.

The agreement with the United Nations was meant to replace a contentious Israeli plan that had offered the migrants a stark choice: forced deportation to Africa or prison. That plan fell through after Rwanda, the African country meant to receive the deportees, announced that it would accept only those who left Israel voluntarily.

In the afternoon, in a televised news conference, Mr. Netanyahu triumphantly announced the new deal, under which the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees committed to persuading countries in the West to take at least 16,250 migrants over five years, while Israel would grant official status as temporary residents to most who remained.

Estimates of the population of African asylum seekers in Israel, mostly from Eritrea and Sudan, range from 35,000 to 39,000.

But the agreement to let many stay in Israel drew harsh criticism from some of Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition allies, who were taken by surprise. Naftali Bennett, the education minister and leader of the far-right Jewish Home party, said the deal would “turn Israel into an infiltrator’s paradise.”

Mr. Netanyahu backtracked.

In a late-night Facebook post he said he was “attentive” to critics and wanted to explain the sequence of events. Rwanda, he said, had withdrawn from its agreement with Israel under pressure from the New Israel Fund — a nonprofit organization that promotes liberal democracy in Israel and is loathed by the right wing here — and “elements in the European Union.”

He said he was suspending the deal with the United Nations refugee agency pending a meeting on Tuesday morning with the veteran residents of south Tel Aviv, where many of the African migrants are concentrated, and that he would then review the understandings reached with the agency.

I'm no trained expert on Israeli politics, but given the situation it's painfully obvious that Netanyahu was given an ultimatum by the right wing of his coalition that he drop the deal or his government was over.  Given the embarrassing speed of his retreat after signing the deal, Netanyahu may have used up the last of his political capital here and could now be in an untenable position.

We'll see where this goes, as now the equally important question as to Bibi's fate is the fate of the tens of thousands of African refugees in the country, but my guess is the clock may finally be up on Netanyahu's term and soon.  No matter what he does at this point, he's in a corner and any action he takes will only lead to calls for his head.

Don't rule out anything at this point, including major military action in Gaza and/or the West Bank.