The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

No, Republicans aren't just going to roll over and give the Democrats the House in 2018.  Republican megadonors like Sheldon Adelson and the Koch Brothers have spent too much money on their pet lawmakers, and they're not about to let Nancy Pelosi up in things.

Republicans have amassed a sprawling shadow field organization to defend the House this fall, spending tens of millions of dollars in an unprecedented effort to protect dozens of battleground districts that will determine control of the chamber. 

The initiative by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), now includes 34 offices running mini-campaigns for vulnerable Republicans throughout the country. It has built its own in-house research and data teams and recruited 4,000 student volunteers, who have knocked on more than 10 million doors since February 2017.

The operation far eclipses the group’s activity in any previous election, when CLF didn’t have a single volunteer or field office. At this time last election cycle, the group had raised $2 million. As of Tuesday, CLF — which markets itself to donors as a super PAC dedicated to saving the House majority and can collect contributions with no dollar limit — had hauled in more than $71 million. 

That war chest and new infrastructure could be a significant factor in an election year dominated by expectations of a Democratic wave fueled by a backlash against President Donald Trump. 

“We have to do everything bigger and better to have a chance,” Corry Bliss, CLF’s executive director, said in a recent interview sandwiched between fundraising events with Ryan. (The speaker attends the events as a draw, but Bliss asks for cash later, in accordance with campaign finance law.) “If we do the same BS, cookie-cutter ads, we’re going to lose.” 

CLF’s midterm strategy, which emphasizes long-term voter engagement, is not normal for a super PAC. Typically, lawmakers’ campaigns and the National Republican Congressional Committee deal with field work and get-out-the-vote efforts — then PACs like CLF swoop in to fill in the blanks with what Bliss often refers to as “shitty TV ads.” 

But Ryan’s political allies decided last year that that model wasn’t working — and that CLF, with its seemingly endless resources, was a “sleeping giant,” as they called it. They agreed to turn the PAC into a massive, hyper-local grass-roots organization. And they tapped Bliss, a former campaign manager, to run the operation. 

“There was a belief shared by many that super PACs had become bloated in their role and, in some cases, did more damage than good,” said Ryan’s national finance chairman, Spencer Zwick, who helped steer the group’s makeover. “Ryan allies said: ‘How could they become more effective?’ and thought, ‘Why can’t super PACs basically run a shadow campaign?’" 

Turns out they can. 

The organization’s expansive operation has surpassed even the NRCC in its first year, at least as far as satellite field offices are concerned. The House’s traditional campaign arm has only one such office. And unlike CLF, which can spend its war chest wherever it sees fit, the NRCC has to cater to the more 240 dues-paying House Republicans, spreading its resources much thinner.

So while the NRCC is getting smoked in fundraising by the Dems, the GOP still has a massive SuperPAC money edge, and they're not afraid to flood the zone with ads to save their house majority.

We'll see how things go, but I still think the 2018 midterms will hinge on the Trump/Russia investigation and its outcome in September and October.  Don't count out the GOP just yet, they will fight for every seat.

So should Dems, and it looks like they will.