In the two states where Donald Trump is the most popular (Alabama and West Virginia, where Morning Consult has Trump at 62-26%), Democratic senators are running for re-election, in this case Doug Jones and Joe Manchin. In order to survive, they both believe that they have to acknowledge Trump's popularity among their constituents. Manchin has been walking this tightrope for a lot longer than Jones, and at this point he's not shy about fully embracing Trump.
Joe Manchin wants you to know he really likes Donald Trump.
The West Virginia senator doesn’t put it quite that way. But more than any other Democrat in Congress, he's positioned himself as a vocal Trump ally. In fact, the senator, up for reelection in a state Trump won by more than 40 points, told POLITICO he isn’t ruling out endorsing Trump for reelection in 2020 — a position practically unheard of for a politician with a “D” next to his name.
“I’m open to supporting the person who I think is best for my country and my state,” Manchin said this week from the driver’s seat of his Grand Cherokee, insisting he’s game to work with any president of either party. “If his policies are best, I’ll be right there.”
Trump’s popularity in West Virginia has Republicans salivating over the prospect of knocking off the legendary 70-year-old senator and former governor this fall. In response, Manchin is sidling up to the president — his policies, his nominees, at times even Trump himself — as the independent-minded Democrat prepares for the toughest race of his career against GOP state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.
The president recently mocked Manchin in front of the Senate GOP caucus as trying to hug him all the time — only a slight exaggeration, by Manchin’s telling.
“We just kind of do the man-bump type thing. That’s it. And I think he’s pulling me as much as I’m pulling him,” Manchin said in describing his physical embraces with the president.
Despite Trump’s recent criticisms of him, Manchin maintains a line with Trump. They last talked two weeks ago — after Trump teased him in front of GOP senators — and the Democratic senator is hopeful that Trump will treat him with kid gloves this fall. In Manchin’s estimation, he is often the “only thing” keeping the president from becoming a down-the-line partisan.
At times, Manchin was the only Democrat who clapped during Trump’s State of the Union address. This spring, Manchin killed liberals’ hopes of blocking Gina Haspel for CIA director by getting behind her early. Manchin supported Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, voted for now-embattled EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and even backed the president’s hard-line immigration proposal.
“I’m with him sometimes more than other Republican senators are with him,” Manchin said.
But Manchin has been frustrated that every time he thinks he's got the president in a moderate place on immigration or background checks for guns, Trump goes to the right. And he hasn’t always been there for Trump, most conspicuously on the GOP’s tax reform bill, which attracted no Democratic votes. He also voted against Betsy DeVos to be education secretary, Tom Price to lead the Health and Human Services Department and Obamacare repeal.
And that gives the GOP enough of a lane to attack the centrist Democrat as someone who will never be a reliable ally of the president compared to a Republican.
“Joe Manchin is not fully supportive of the Trump agenda. If Joe Manchin says that he votes with the president 50-60 percent of the time? In my book that’s a failure,” Morrisey said in a telephone interview.
Technically, Manchin is a Democrat. In reality, he’s a man without a party. His discomfort is apparent all around: He needs to appeal to Trump voters in a historically Democratic state that’s turned blood red. He had an infamously chilly relationship with President Barack Obama — he still refuses to talk about who he voted for in 2012 — and now has regrets about supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016.
At this point, Joe Manchin is the guy behind the adage "If you walk down the center of the road, eventually you're going to get run over." I'm pretty sure Manchin is going to get run over in November, but if he survives, I can't say he'd even stick with Chuck Schumer.
In the eternal battle between "more Democrats" vs "better Democrats", Manchin just might be neither.
Meanwhile, things are looking a bit better for Dems nationally as June polling starts coming in.
So far, however, the president's party has been unable to effectively link positive news to its effort to preserve control of Congress. Democrats hold a 10 percentage point edge over Republicans, 50 percent to 40 percent, when voters are asked which party they want to win midterm elections in November.
More than that, Democrats hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm. Fully 63 percent of Democrats express the highest levels of interests in the fall election, compared to 47 percent of Republicans.
"Democrats' enthusiasm matches Republicans' in 2014 and 2010," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. In 2010, Republicans captured control of the House; in 2014, they took over the Senate.
Democrats have built that edge on their leads among independents (7 percentage points), voters under 35 (20 points), white college graduates (24 points), Latinos (24 points), and African-Americans (81 points). Republicans retain a narrow edge among whites (3 points) and a large one among white men who have not graduated from college (37 points).
It's worth noting that if the Republican edge among white voters overall is down to just 3 points, they are in serious trouble, but again, the key is going to be white college graduates. Clinton won them, but not by enough. a 24-point margin however is definitely a problem for the GOP.
We'll see.
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