Shoes to Be Filled That Won't Quite Fit

The country must function without the late Sen. John McCain, and the question turns to who Arizona GOP Gov. Doug Ducey will appoint, and when. 

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will be tasked with appointing a successor to John McCain, the six-term Republican senator who died Saturday at age 81.

As McCain battled brain cancer, Ducey, a Republican, did not speculate publicly about who he might tap to replace him. Since McCain died after the deadline to file for this November’s election, most close observers have concluded that the new senator will not face voters until the 2020 general election.

Republicans in the state have privately discussed a long list of potential appointees in recent months, including McCain’s wife, Cindy; Ducey’s chief of staff, Kirk Adams; State Treasurer Eileen Klein; former congressman John Shadegg; and former U.S. senator Jon Kyl. Most recently, Kyl has been in Washington helping Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh navigate the Senate confirmation process.

Arizona law says the appointee must be from the same party as the person vacating the seat.

A Republican strategist familiar with the governor’s thinking told The Washington Post earlier this year that Ducey would want someone who could function in the post and keep the job.

Ducey is up for reelection this year. His spokesman has said he would not appoint himself to the Senate seat.

Republicans are defending a narrow, 51 to 49 Senate majority in this year’s midterm elections. Uncertainty about McCain’s health this year caused party leaders to brace for the possibility of having to defend his seat in November.

But when the May 30 deadline to qualify for the ballot came and went without McCain’s seat becoming vacant, worries about having to protect another seat from Democrats faded.

In addition to empowering the governor to appoint a near-term successor, state law says the vacancy shall be filled “at the next general election.” Many Republicans believe that now means the election in 2020, given that this year’s filing deadline has passed.

Ducey has a landmine of a choice here, considering he's running himself for governor and the primary is Tuesday.  Most likely he'll end up facing Democrat David Garcia, an Army veteran and Arizona State University education professor, in the general in November.  Garcia has a decent chance of winning, and as such Republicans have been attacking him relentlessly.

However now all eyes are on who Ducey has to snub in order to name McCain's successor.  He's only going to piss off the base if he picks Cindy McCain or Jon Kyl, or the general electorate if he decides to pick one of Tuesday's primary losers (like say Joe Arpaio.)  And who knows what Trump wants?  If Ducey doesn't fill the seat with Arpaio, Trump could sink his chances in the state overnight with a tweet barrage.

Ducey appointing himself would hand the seat to Garcia I would suspect, but if somehow Ducey loses on Tuesday to former Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Ducey would be nuts not to.

We'll see what happens Tuesday, but Ducey will be under a lot of pressure to move on this later this week.  John McCain's service will be on Sunday, so he may be able to put off a decision until after Labor Day, but not much longer then that.