The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

The final special House election before the 2018 midterms is upon us in OH-12 as Democratic candidate Danny O'Connor takes on Republican Troy Balderson for GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi's old seat.  

This has long been Columbus's reddest suburban area, after 17 years, Tiberi left Congress in January to cash in the GOP tax bill he helped write, and it was John Kasich's House seat for another 18 years before that.  In fact, outside Bob Shamansky's two years in the Reagan era (he got gerrymandered out in '82) this seat has been blood red since FDR.

That could come to an end tomorrow as panicking Republicans now face a dead heat race in an R+7 district.

The entire Republican Party machinery has converged on this suburban Columbus district for a furious eleventh-hour campaign aimed at saving a conservative House seat and averting another special election disaster.

But in the final days ahead of Tuesday's election, signs were everywhere that Democrats are surging — from recent polling to the private and public statements of many Republicans, including the GOP candidate himself. The district has been reliably red for more than three decades, but the sheer size of the Republican cavalry made clear how worried the party is about losing it.

At a Saturday evening rally, President Donald Trump tried to juice conservative excitement for mild-mannered Republican candidate Troy Balderson while foisting a Trumpian nickname upon 31-year-old Democratic hopeful Danny O’Connor: “Danny boy.” Earlier in the week, Vice President Mike Pence made the trek, while Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. recorded a robocall, and Gov. John Kasich endorsed Balderson in a TV ad.

The Republican National Committee has opened two offices in the district, launched a $500,000-plus get-out-the-vote effort, and dispatched one of its top officials, Bob Paduchik, who ran Trump’s 2016 Ohio campaign. And outside conservative groups, led by a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, have dumped more than $3.5 million onto the TV airwaves, far outpacing Democrats.

The all-out push underscores the GOP’s trepidation about the final special election before the midterms. A loss, following startling Republican defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would offer more evidence that a blue wave is on the horizon. And it would further fuel fears of what’s becoming evident: that Democrats are simply more amped up, even in areas that have long been safely Republican.

As he addressed volunteers gathered in a campaign office on Friday afternoon, Balderson, a 56-year-old state legislator, hinted at the enthusiasm deficit that was plaguing his party. A Monmouth University poll last week had him ahead of O'Connor by a single percentage point, 44 to 43.

“You all know, it’s a tight race. And everybody wants to know, why is it tight? Why is it tight?” he said. “Because this race is all about turnout.”

He's not wrong, but the fact that the entire Trump regime machine is coming to Balderson's defense is very telling.  Republicans know they are in dire trouble.  They know the clock is ticking on the midterms and the reckoning for Trump's collusion, which he all but admitted to yesterday. 

We'll see what happens tomorrow, but my gut tells me O'Connor wins by 3 or 4.  If you're a ZVTS reader in OH-12, let's make that happen.