The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

DOnald Trump is a pathological liar, somebody so divorced from even the concept of objective truth that it simply cannot exist in his world.  He lies constantly and consistently in order to aggrandize himself and receive adoration from his cult.  But now, Trump's endless lies to his base about how easily Republicans will win due to Trump being the Glorious Leader are threatening to turn the November blue wave into a cerulean tsunami as internal GOP polling shows Republicans are in full panic mode.

By the numbers: 57% of strong Trump supporters believe it's unlikely Democrats win the House, according to the source, who wasn't authorized to share findings from the RNC poll with the media. (The survey of 800 registered voters — 480 via landline calls and 320 via cellphone calls — was conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2 and has a margin of error of 3.5%.)

By contrast, election forecaster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website gives Democrats an 83.1% chance of winning control over the House.

Why this matters: A month ago, we reported in "Sneak Peek" that Republican strategists were detecting something interesting — and from their POV, concerning — in focus groups of Trump voters. These voters — who have been listening to the president predicting a "red wave" in November — didn't believe polls showing Democrats would win the House.

This disbelief freaked out Republican strategists who want their voters to be panicked enough to vote in November.

But, but, but: Several Republican officials who have reviewed the latest polling tell me they see an opportunity amidst the gloomy data. They think they can energize seniors, suburban women and Republicans less likely to vote by attacking the high costs and potential implications of Democrats' "Medicare for All" single payer health care plans.

For these Republican constituencies, an anti-Medicare for All message "is the best performing message of persuading and motivating these groups in this November’s election," said a source familiar with the president's political thinking. "If you're giving something to everyone, that means less for seniors," the White House's political director, Bill Stepien, told me.

Trump has been briefed on this new polling and has been hammering these messages in recent rallies.

Democrats plan to fight back against this messaging. Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson told me: "For years, Republicans have been trying to make Medicare wither on the vine, so voters aren't going to believe they're now trying to save it. Even if Lex Luthor put on a cape, people wouldn't start believing he's Superman."

Expect this message war to continue.  It's the same tactic that Republicans used in 2010 to destroy the Democratic majority in Congress, and to great effect.  Republicans believe the lie of "If Dems win, they will give your heath care money to those people and you will die alone in the streets" will save them.

2010 and 2014 suggests very strongly that Republicans will be able to significantly narrow the enthusiasm gap through motivating senior voters through Medicare fear...that is if the message isn't sunk by Trump himself.

Or by, say, Robert Mueller.