The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

With just over six weeks until November midterms, the good news is that Democrats continue to hold a double-digit generic ballot lead in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.  The bad news is that gerrymandering and the Senate structural map mean it still may not be enough to take back control of the House and Senate.

The pollsters' so-called "generic ballot" pitting the two parties for the House illustrates the GOP predicament most broadly. In 1994, before seizing control of both the House and Senate from Democrats, Republicans led on that question by four percentage points; in 2006, before Democrats seized them back, they led by 10 points.

Their 12-point national lead today includes a margin of 30 points in House districts Democrats already hold. That means some of those anti-Trump votes will merely translate into larger victories for Democratic incumbents without producing any of the 23 additional seats the party needs to make Nancy Pelosi speaker again.

But the best evidence of vulnerability for Trump and his party lies in the seats Republicans already hold. The survey shows Republicans leading by only a single percentage point in those districts.

Overall, a 42 percent plurality of voters say they want to place a check on President Trump, compared to 31 percent who aim to help him achieve his objectives. Even in Republican-held districts, 38 percent want a check on their party's president.

Moreover, Democrats have generated wide advantages among key swing groups within the electorate. The poll shows them leading by 31 percentage points among independents, 33 points among moderates and 12 points among white women.

Among white college graduates, a group Republicans carried by nine points in 2014 mid-term elections, Republicans now trail by 15 points. Among white women without college degrees, a group Republicans carried by 10 points in 2014, Republicans now trail by five points.

"The Republican coalition is, at the moment, unhinged," said McInturff, the Republican pollster. The party's erosion among women voters heightens the potential risk for Republicans in the ongoing furor over sexual assault allegations against Trump's Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh.

If these numbers hold true, Democrats are going to make gains, and possibly big gains.  But that one point GOP lead in red districts makes me think that voter suppression could sharply limit those gains.  Yes, it means that the average Republican House seat is in real trouble.  But it also means that it would only take a point or two shaved off in turnout through voter suppression for a lot of these endangered Republicans in toss-up races to hold on.

What we need in November is presidential election-level turnout.

If turnout is a dismal 32% like it was in 2014, the GOP is not only going to keep the House, they will have 57 or 58 Senate seats by the time the dust settles.

We have to vote in numbers that Republicans cannot suppress. We need record midterm turnout, and that's just not going to happen.  I will be shocked if all this "enthusiasm" translates into total turnout being over 35%.  We know we'll be lucky if turnout among Millennials is even 20%.  In 2014 it was 17%.

I'm just not seeing the turnout numbers in polls that we have to have, guys.  That has to change or we're done as a country.