Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) is tied with his Democratic rival just three weeks before Election Day in a race President Trump's political team is watching closely.
A new survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy finds Bevin and state Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) tied at 46 percent each.
That's an improvement for Bevin, whose job approval rating has been underwater for years. The last time Mason-Dixon surveyed the race, in December, Beshear led by 8 points.
Bevin is still unpopular; just 45 percent of voters approve of the job he's doing as governor, while 48 percent disapprove. But the incumbent is moving in the right direction — his approval rating has climbed 7 points since December, despite a brutal primary campaign in which Bevin only narrowly won the Republican nomination.
The rifts from that primary campaign seem to have healed. Bevin is now winning more than three quarters of the Republican vote, according to the poll, as well as 22 percent of Democrats, likely those who live in ancestrally Democratic areas where coal jobs and union membership were once dominant.
Independent voters break for Beshear by a 46 percent to 38 percent margin, the poll finds. Beshear leads by double digits in Louisville and Lexington, while Bevin holds big advantages in the rural eastern and western sections of the state.
Few other public surveys have tested Kentucky's electorate, but Democrats have been optimistic about Beshear's chances in recent months, especially in the wake of the vicious Republican primary.
So, like four years ago, it's all about turnout. The turnout models four years ago were all wrong, missing the nascent Trump wave and the white rural rage it represented, turning what should have been Jack Conway 11 point win into a seven point loss.
But Bevin isn't Trump, and he's still hurt a lot of people in the last four years. He's still unpopular, just not the most unpopular in the nation anymore.
We'll see in three weeks.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment