Yet another poll shows Matt Bevin has now tied up the Kentucky Governor's race with Andy Beshear with under two weeks to go, and Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Joe Gerth wonders what it's going to take for KY Dems to learn how to close a race they led for months against arguably the most unpopular Governor in America.
Democrats across Kentucky must be banging their heads against the wall and mumbling to themselves, “Not again.”
As has been the case in recent elections, Democrats have fielded a candidate for major statewide office who comes screaming out of the gate with a lead in the polls, only to see it wither away in the final month or so before the election.
Some early internal polls had Attorney General Andy Beshear with nearly a double-digit lead over Gov. Matt Bevin after he dispatched House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins and former state Auditor Adam Edelen in May.
But a Mason Dixon poll released last week has the race as a tie, with momentum clearly on Bevin’s side as we hit the last two weeks before Election Day.
We saw the same phenomena in 2015, when Jack Conway led Bevin in mid-summer polling only to see it turn as brown as the trees by November. Bevin won by nine percentage points.
We saw it in 2014, when Alison Lundergan Grimes had a four-point lead over Sen. Mitch McConnell, according to the Bluegrass Poll, only to see it evaporate. McConnell won by 15 percentage points.
In 2008, Bruce Lunsford pulled within a point of McConnell, only to lose in November by six percentage points.
Democrats say their internals still have Beshear ahead of Bevin, and Republicans say their polls actually have their candidate leading.
Either way, the race has tightened, and we’re seeing the same pattern emerge that has meant doom for Democrats in recent years. That’s not to say Beshear still can’t pull this out, but if he does, he’s going to have to sweat it out on election night.
It ain’t gonna be easy.
Bevin has run the last six weeks on ending abortion in Kentucky and ads about scary MS-13 gang members invading Kentucky from Mexico, and he's probably going to win because of it.
I'm tired of KY Dems blowing leads time and time again. Another four years of Bevin and Kentucky will be dead last in education, teacher pay, health care, environmental safety, and will become the first state without a single abortion provider.
And my neighbors are either going to stay home or vote for this prick to take everything from us. It infuriates me to no end. Bevin straight up lied about Medicaid, he lied about teachers, he lied about everything, and he dumped the state's first black statewide officer off the ticket since Reconstruction because she was a drag with his white supremacist base.
But he's a 50-50 shot to win.
We deserve the destruction this asshole will bring.