Mitch McConnell may be willing to sacrifice the Senate GOP in order to hurt Democratic voters in need of COVID-19 relief, but the Senate GOP may not be willing to jump off this particular cliff.
With their majority on the line, Senate Republicans are beginning to fret about the prospect of facing voters in the final weeks of the campaign without a new round of coronavirus aid being enacted.
As the talks between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin teetered Thursday on the verge of collapse, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is trying to stay outside the blast zone. Many of his members up for reelection say it would be a mistake for the Senate to adjourn for the election without taking action to give people some relief.
“There’s no reason we shouldn’t all be here until the election if that’s what it takes to pass a follow up to the CARES Act,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is in a tight race with Democrat Cal Cunningham. The pair were scheduled to face off in a debate on Thursday night.
“I do not think we should recess without a coronavirus package,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is facing Sara Gideon, the Democratic Maine state House speaker. “We're not that far apart.”
Heading into the election empty-handed would surely be a drag on vulnerable senators and House members in both parties. The U.S. economy is mired in a recession, the coronavirus is continuing to spread across the country with no signs of relenting and massive layoffs are being reported daily. Congress is in line to shoulder much of the blame for not offering any relief to the crisis since the spring.
The Senate appears to be sticking around for at least another week, if not more, to keep the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett moving forward. Judiciary Committee confirmation hearings on Barrett are set to begin Oct. 12. And the House can always reconvene to process a bill if there’s any deal. But it might take a push from those most at risk of losing their jobs in a month to get any deal over the finish line.
The effort to get Pelosi and Mnuchin back to the table started among moderate Democrats in the House. And it’s clear Senate Republicans in tough races are getting similarly antsy, even as they criticize Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for refusing to accept a slimmer stimulus bill in September.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), facing challenger MJ Hegar this fall, said what worries him most is that a vaccine “will be delayed because of the lack of funds because of no deal.”
“This should’ve been done three weeks ago,” said Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), who narrowly leads Democrat Jon Ossoff. “Yeah, I’m very frustrated by that. Mnuchin and [Pelosi] have been talking this week about some sort of compromise. … I’m hopeful. We’re coming back next week, and frankly, I don’t think we should leave until we get it done.”
Vulnerable Senate Republicans, though, aren’t blaming McConnell for the failure to reach an agreement. McConnell offered a roughly $500 billion package several weeks ago, only to see Schumer reject it as woefully inadequate to the needs facing the country. Democrats ultimately blocked the measure from advancing.
McConnell and his leadership team have been resolute that their conference is so divided over how much to spend that they have to keep spending levels as low as possible to generate maximum GOP support. But Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, another Republican facing a surprisingly tough challenge this year, said his party is warming to the $1.6 trillion number set forth by the administration.
“We need a package. But it’s got to be something that’s reasonable. It doesn’t help me to throw money at the problem, it does help me to put money where it matters,” said Graham, who is narrowly leading Democrat Jaime Harrison. “Half of us would vote for a package. Maybe more now, if it’s reasonable."
If you still needed proof that Collins, Tillis, Perdue, Cornyn and Graham are all in real trouble in their internal polling, you have to look no further. And Nancy Pelosi just plunged the knife in with a $2.2 trillion package passed Thursday by the House that now leaves the Senate holding the bag with roughly 30 days to go before judgement. Mitch may be able to save himself, but he'll lose control of the Senate at this rate and he knows it.
Besides, Trump wants a deal. He clearly wants to bribe people to vote for him, and he so badly wants all the credit for the government doing things. He may go over Mitch's head on this one, especially with him still down 7 points with just a month to go.
I'm still convinced that no relief will come until after the election, and nothing may come at all as long as Mitch controls the Senate. But if he doesn't, or Trump gives him an ultimatum, we'll see just where this goes.
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