Orange Meltdown, Con't

The latest CNN/SSRS poll has Trump getting wiped out 57%-41%, down a whopping sixteen points to Joe Biden after last week's disastrous debate and COVID-19 cover-up.

 

 

Likely voters broadly prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues that voters consider critically important in the race, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), health care (59% to 39%), racial inequality in America (62% to 36%), nominations to the Supreme Court (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). The two are about even over who would better handle the economy (50% say Biden, 48% Trump), similar to where they have been among registered voters in recent polling.
Biden's favorability ratings have also improved, with 52% of Americans now saying they have a positive impression of the former vice president, compared with 39% who have a positive view of Trump. 

Likely voters are more apt to consider Biden the candidate who would unite the country (61% Biden to 33% Trump), who is honest and trustworthy (58% Biden to 33% Trump), who cares about people like you (58% Biden to 38% Trump), who has a clear plan to solve the nation's problems (55% to 39%) and who would keep Americans safe from harm (55% to 43%). 

Although this is the first national CNN survey to report results among likely voters, a comparison of results among registered voters now to those from a survey about a month ago reveals Biden has made substantial gains in support among several key voting blocs. 

Biden has expanded his edge over Trump among women, from 57% to 37% in September to 66% to 32% now. That shift includes substantial gains for Biden among white women with college degrees and women of color. Among people of color generally, Biden's advantage has increased from 59% to 31% in September to 69% to 27% now. The former vice president has also made gains among younger voters, moderates and independents over the last month. 

It is important to note that these increases in support for Biden have not come alongside substantial decreases in backing for Trump. The President's core supporters remain as supportive of him as they have been, if not more. Among white men without college degrees, for example, Trump's support has increased from 61% in September to 67% now. But Trump does not appear to have made any gains among the groups his campaign needs to attract in order to dent Biden's longstanding lead. 

Compared with the last national CNN poll, the partisan composition of this poll is only slightly more Democratic (33% of all adults say they are Democrats now, compared with 30% in early September) and no less Republican (28% GOP now vs. 27% in early September). Among registered voters in the poll, 35% consider themselves Democrats, 30% Republican, those figures were 33% and 30% respectively in the previous CNN poll. When independents who lean toward one party or the other are added in, the results also show little movement, 53% of registered voters now are Democrats or lean that way, 43% are Republicans or lean that way. In last month's poll, those figures were 52% Democratic to 42% Republican. 

The shifts in this poll are similar to those seen in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday, which was conducted after the presidential debate but before the President's diagnosis of coronavirus was revealed. 

 

The crosstabs are lethal for Trump.  It basically shows a huge shift towards Biden in two groups: Hispanic voters, and Seniors over 65. CNN doesn't break down their polls to show both Black and Hispanic voters generally, so it's an assumption, but for Biden to go from 59% of non-white voters to 69% in one poll means he picked up a *huge* swing in Hispanic (and Asian) voters. Clinton got 74% of non-white voters in 2016.

And Clinton still lost, because of Trump's sizeable lead among white voters. He does not have that big lead this time. Trump won 2016 on the strength of voters over 50, where he got 52% of the vote among 46% of total electorate, and white men, 62% of them, making up 34% of the electorate. Overall in 2016, Trump had a 20-point lead with white voters, 57%-37%.

 

This CNN poll has that lead now gone.  Voters over 50 now prefer Biden 55%-44%, and white voters side with Biden 51%-47%. In particular, Seniors have abandoned Trump. Seniors over 65voted for Trump 52-45% in 2016. In this poll Biden is winning Seniors by twenty-one points, 60-39%.

And the big one, Trump won men 52-41% in 2016, and Clinton won women 54-41%.

In this poll?

Trump's lead among men is 49-47% but Biden's lead among women is 66-32%.

.

If this is even close to being true, Trump is dust and memory.

I'll believe it when the votes are counted.

But dear God, he's collapsing.  Let's finish him off.

Vote.