Russian To Judgment, Con't

Pretty sure this is one of those "Well, Biden has more information than your second-guessing pundit wannabe self does, so..." situations as President Biden is keeping John Sullivan in place as Ambassador to Russia.

The Biden administration recently decided to keep the Trump-appointed US ambassador on the job in Moscow for the foreseeable future, two senior administration officials told CNN, demonstrating a willingness to nurture areas of stability in the US-Russia relationship after it got off to a tumultuous start. 

John Sullivan has been on the job for almost a year and a half. He is viewed by administration officials as a steady hand as the administration ramps up the pressure on Russia for taking actions to undermine the US and democratic values broadly. President Joe Biden is still deciding on other ambassadorial posts, and the White House said Monday the President had not decided on the "vast majority" of positions. 

The Biden administration has already made it clear that they will break from President Donald Trump's approach to Russia. Trump largely sought to flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin and famously said he believed Putin that Russia did not seek to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election, despite a finding from US intelligence agencies that it did. 

The White House signaled that it would approach Russia on a case-by-case basis early in the administration when they extended a key arms control treaty with Russia, New START, and also ordered an intelligence review of Russian misdeeds. 

Keeping an ambassador in Moscow who already knows the players, as well as inviting Putin to the climate change conference later this month, signals that the administration remains open to diplomacy and working with Russia where is it possible. Biden invited dozens of leaders to the summit, though the Kremlin said when the list was announced it would need some time to confirm Putin's participation. 

The Biden administration "decided the professionalism that John Sullivan has brought to the job is valued at a time of important political transition in the US and US-Russia reactions, in both standing up to Russia's bellicose efforts near Ukraine as well as exploring possible engagement on climate, security and other issues," said John Tefft, the former US ambassador to Russia. "These transitions can often take a long time which works to our detriment in terms of having a consistent foreign policy." 

These moves come as Biden is currently weighing a package of sanctions and other moves in response to a US intelligence review of Russia's malign actions, including election interference and the Solarwinds breach. 

Senior administration officials have met over the last week to discuss the potential response, which the White House has also said would include an "unseen" component. Complicating the deliberations, however, has been Russia's massing of troops along Ukraine's eastern border, ratcheting up tensions with the US. 

Officials now are weighing how the potential new sanctions and other punishments might provoke further escalation.

 

It's that last part that's the key. Right now Russia is massing troops on the Ukrainian border, with clear intent to invade in order to test Biden and Biden doesn't want to go through appointing a new ambassador right now. He doesn't have the time. Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky, our old friend that got his ultimatum from Trump last year, is now dealing with Putin's wrath directly.

For years, the brutal conflict in eastern Ukraine, between government forces and Russian-backed separatists, has been locked in a tense standoff. Major combat, which cost thousands of lives since 2014, has given way to a grinding stalemate. Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, fighting erupted in the neighboring Donbas region -- another mainly Russian speaking area of Ukraine with rebels demanding independence from Kiev.

 

But amid growing tensions with the United States and its Western allies, Russian forces have again been spotted on the move across the border sparking concerns the war may be reignited.

 

Cell phone video has emerged of Russian armored columns driving towards the Ukrainian frontier. Tanks and artillery guns have been seen being transported by rail. There's also been a build-up reported in Crimea.

In Moscow, the Kremlin says the troop movements are inside Russia, part of a planned military exercise and pose no threat.

 

But at the front lines, the Ukrainian President told CNN a Russian invasion is a very real possibility his country is bracing for.
 

"Of course. We know it, from 2014 we know it can be each day," he said.
 

"They are ready, but we are also ready because we are on our land and our territory," he told CNN. 

Lt. Gen. Ruslan Khomchak, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told CNN an estimated 50,000 Russian troops have now gathered across the Russian border and in Crimea. In addition, there are at least 35,000 Russian-backed separatists in rebel-held areas of Ukraine, he said.

 

A Russian invasion of the Crimea region again seems imminent.  Biden has bigger problems than a new ambassador in Moscow right now. Sullivan will have to do.