Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin continues to jerk President Biden around on the Build Back Better plan, but the fact of the matter is that being the Democrat that has stopped much of Biden's agenda has now made him wildly popular in his home state of West Virginia.
Sen. Joe Manchin has faced the wrath of progressives nationwide during Joe Biden’s presidency for killing a range of domestic agenda items on voting rights, social spending programs and climate change. But at home in West Virginia, Morning Consult Political Intelligence data suggests the moderate Democrat knows exactly what he’s doing.
In surveys conducted Jan. 1-March 31, 57% of West Virginia voters approved of Manchin’s job performance, up from 40% during the first quarter of 2021 — the biggest increase of any senator over that time frame.
Manchin’s double-digit approval rating improvement over the course of Biden’s tenure is a rarity when compared with other incumbents: Just three of them — John Thune (R-S.D.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) — have seen comparable improvement in their standing.
Where Murkowski saw upticks among independents and Republicans, Thune received improved marks across the board and Padilla’s standing got better due to more voters becoming aware of him, Manchin’s boost stands out due to the dramatic shift in the coalition supporting him, which has reddened to a staggering extent.
Manchin’s increased popularity is driven primarily by Republican voters: 69% now approve of his job performance, doubling his rating from the first quarter of last year, when 35% approved. Most of that improvement has come since the third quarter of 2021 — before he killed the Democrats’ “Build Back Better” domestic policy legislation.
While Manchin has made up ground on the right, he’s angered West Virginia Democrats, 54% of whom now disapprove of him, up from 32% around this time last year. However, he’s also made large gains with independents over that time frame, with an approval rating rising from 31% to 50%.
“It turns out that Joe Manchin knows more about West Virginia voters than D.C. strategists,” said former Manchin aide Jonathan Kott. “The amount of interactions he has with his voters I don’t think can be paralleled by other members.”
Manchin’s numbers in West Virginia stand in contrast to those of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Democrat who has joined Manchin in blocking key pieces of Biden’s agenda. Despite a similar coalitional shift, her approval rating has dropped to 46% to 44%, while the share who disapprove increased from 35% to 42%, due to souring among Democrats and a lack of bounce among independents.
For Manchin, the increased support from the other side of the aisle could come in handy as he is said to be plotting a 2024 re-election campaign in a state Biden lost by nearly 39 points to former President Donald Trump.
According to Morning Consult tracking conducted in each state, Manchin’s high marks place him among America’s 10 most popular senators for the first time since Biden took office.
Manchin is a whole lot smarter than he lets on, and he knows West VIrginia voters better than anyone. A Democratic senator with 69% approval in his own state in this day and age of hyperpartisanship is an accomplishment.
A bipartisan group of senators met Monday evening to discuss a potential climate and energy bill that can garner 60 votes in the Senate and revive the barest elements of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda, senators and aides told Axios.
Why it matters: By aiming for 60 votes in a 50-50 Senate, some members of the group are trying to recreate the dynamic that led last year to the passage of $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.The group’s Democrats are hopeful they can rescue a portion of the $550 billion in climate spending included in the president’s BBB proposal.
Its Republicans are open to exploring ways to open up more federal land to drill for natural gas drilling, reform the permitting process and invest in nuclear energy.
Driving the news: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are spearheading the effort.
Some 16 senators — eight from each party — were invited to attend the meeting Monday evening, Axios learned.“Joe [Manchin], not surprisingly, likes to be proactive and he wants to see what's possible,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told Axios.
“What's acceptable to them has got to be something that can get 10 of us,” said Cramer. “And that's going to be pretty tough.”
“It’s an opportunity to talk about a path forward,” said Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.).
“I just think [President] Kennedy used to say, 'Never negotiate out of fear but never be afraid to negotiate,'” he said. “We are going to have a good conversation and we'll see where it goes."
Between the lines: Manchin, who killed Biden’s more ambitious, $1.75 trillion bill last December, has been privately hinting he prefers to pass any legislation outside of the partisan budget reconciliation process.
That means it had to clear a higher bar: 60 votes — with at least 10 coming from the Republicans.Some of his preferred policy prescriptions for energy independence, like approving the Mountain Valley Pipeline, were always in danger of being washed out of a reconciliation bill by a so-called Byrd Bath.
It allows the Senate parliamentarian to rule if a specific piece of legislation can be considered via the process reserved for budget reconciliation.
“[Monday's] meeting was an effort to gauge bipartisan interest in a path forward that addresses our nation’s climate and energy security needs head on," said Manchin spokesperson Sam Runyon.
So yes, of course Manchin is going to be wildly popular in West Virginia. He's assuring that Republicans craft our climate policy
By the way, the Senator most hated by their own constituents?
Mitch McConnell, with an approval rating of 30% and a disapproval rating of 60%.
It's not even close.
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