It's time to take stock of how my picks, pans, predictions and prognostications proceeded here in 2022, you know, with the fate of the country at stake and all if I was wrong. Luckily, I did pretty well this year, as we run down my dartboarding.
1) Democrats keep the Senate in 2022. I can't in good faith call the House at this point. But I do know that as Mitch McConnell has proven, keeping the Senate when you have the White House means there's a lot you can do, and Biden has gotten a record number of federal judiciary appointments. The next Supreme Court justice could happen at any time, as we've seen. Without the House, things would be terrible. But without the Senate, it'll be catastrophic.
I get full credit for this one, and thank the universe for that.
2) Nancy Pelosi steps down as House Democratic Leader. I hate to say it, even after the long years she has proven that she has been the most effective House leader the Democrats have seen in my lifetime, but I think she steps down in 2022 and will not run as Speaker or House Minority Leader in 2023.
She went out on her terms, in her own time, with her own successor in Hakeem Jeffries. Another point.
3) Donald Trump is indicted in the state of New York. Don't ask me about the federal charges, but I honestly believe NY AG Tish James is going to try to prosecute Donald Trump, and it's going to be one of the most fateful chapters in our modern political history.
Not yet. Trump was able to delay indictments until 2023, and maybe further.
4) COVID-19 deaths will surpass 1.2 million total in the US. The good news here is that 2022 will thankfully have fewer deaths than 2020 or 2021, but not by much. We'll still have to contend with a very bad winter, but if we can get past that, I think there's finally some hope.
5) The Supreme Court will gut/overturn Roe v. Wade. At this point the writing is on the courtroom wall. Roe is dead, and individual states will move to either regulate safe abortion out of existence, criminalize it with heavy penalties for women, doctors, and health care professionals, make crossing state lines to get a abortion elsewhere illegal, ban it altogether, or all of the above. It won't end abortion, just safe ones. It will change America for a generation.
I wish I was wrong here, but this was patently obvious back in December 2021 when I predicted this. A full point I dearly wish I did not get.
6) The Supreme Court will also gut executive agencies. This will be a massive win for corporations, but the bottom line is agencies like OSHA, FDA, CDC, SEC, EPA, you name it, it will be essentially turned off. I don't know what all will be stricken down, but it's going to be a huge mess when it happens. This too will change America for a generation.
This too was eminently predictable, and we'll be paying dearly for the West Virginia v EPA decision for decades to come. Another point I badly wish I was wrong about.
7) The Dow will finish the year above 36,000. I mean that's where it ended the year, so what I basically mean is I'm not predicting a recession, yay! I hope I'm right. If I'm correct on some of these previous predictions, well, things can go badly quickly.
A complete whiff here, the Dow closed the year at 33,145 with two recessionary GDP quarters in the first half, and the Fed tightening the screws with no letup in sight.
8) Marvel films will make another billion in 2022. Since it seems movie-watching in theaters is now officially back as of December, May's Doctor Strange sequel, July's Thor: Love and Thunder, and November's Black Panther 2 should easily gross a billion combined, if not more.
And even with as much criticism as Marvel's Phase 4 took in 2022, people still went to see the MCU. The three movies made nearly $1.2 billion collectively in the domestic market, and worldwide made a hefty $2.5 billion. No failures here, the box office is back, and in other movies, Top Gun: Maverick almost clearing $1.5 billion worldwide by itself, with Avatar: The Way of Water still going strong at $1.16 billion and Jurassic Park: Dominion clearing a billion even.
9) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy is booted from the House GOP leadership. I don't know who will lead the House GOP in 2023, but I can guarantee you it won't be McCarthy. And I think things will be so bad he'll make his plans known, like Pelosi, that he's "stepping down". The difference is with McCarthy, it won't be a choice.
Not so far, but we'll find out in a week, won't we?
10) ZVTS will roll on for another year. It's because of you guys, you know this, and we'll sail into year 14 and then some. I want to honestly thank you, the readers. When I started this back in 2008, I had no idea where the country would go. I made the journey along with you, and I'm glad you're here, new or old.
A free point as usual, and the sentiment stands. This blog is old enough to be driving in the parking lot. I never thought I'd make it this far, let alone have you all still with me.
Thank you.
I finish out the year with 6.5 out of 10, a better than average year for my scorecard.
As usual, my 2023 predictions coming later today.
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