A Big Nasty Wedge Salad

One of the biggest reasons that Republicans are ruthlessly trying to destroy LGBTQ+ folks and trans folks in particular is because it's successfully being used as a wedge issue to try to crack the Obama coalition apart, and Black voters in particular.

 

Republicans and Democrats in the United States differ widely in their views on gender identity and transgender issues. But there are notable differences among Democrats, too, especially by race and ethnicity.

Overall, 60% of U.S. adults say that whether someone is a man or woman is determined by their sex at birth, while 38% say someone can be a man or woman even if that is different from their sex at birth, according to a May 2022 Pew Research Center survey. Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) say someone’s gender is determined by sex at birth, while a majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (61%) say someone’s gender can differ from their sex at birth.

But Democrats’ views differ widely by race and ethnicity. Around two-thirds of Black Democrats (66%) say that whether someone is a man or woman is determined by their sex at birth. By contrast, 72% of White Democrats, 61% of Asian Democrats and 54% of Hispanic Democrats say that someone can be a man or woman even if that is different from their sex at birth. On this question, Black Democrats’ views are closer to those of Republicans than to the views of other Democrats.

 

And the differences are also pretty stark when it comes to trans kids as well.

Among Democratic K-12 parents, views again differ by race and ethnicity. Majorities of Black and Hispanic Democratic parents either prefer that their K-12 children learn that sex at birth determines whether someone is a boy or girl – or say that their children should not learn about this subject at school at all. By contrast, nearly two-thirds of White Democratic K-12 parents (64%) prefer that their children learn at school that someone can be a boy or girl even if that differs from their sex at birth. (There were not enough Asian American Democratic K-12 parents in the September 2022 survey to analyze separately.)

What explains Black Democrats’ differences with other Democrats on questions related to gender identity and transgender people?

Black Democrats are generally more likely than other Democrats to describe their political views as moderate and less likely to describe their views as liberal. Black Democrats have also differed from other Democrats on certain social issues, including whether the legalization of same-sex marriage has been good for society. They tend to be more religious than other Democrats as well – and more likely to say religion influences their views on gender identity, according to the Center’s May 2022 survey.

Around four-in-ten Black Democrats (37%) say their religious views have a great deal or fair amount of influence on their views about whether someone’s gender can differ from their sex at birth. Fewer White (11%), Hispanic (21%) and Asian Democrats (22%) say the same. White Democrats, by comparison, are more likely than Democrats in all other major racial and ethnic groups to say their views on gender identity are influenced a great deal or fair amount by knowing someone who is transgender. White Democrats are also more likely than most other Democrats to say their views are influenced a great deal or fair amount by what they’ve learned from science.

 

So yes, the gap between Black and white Democrats on trans issues is pretty big, and Republicans are more than happy to keep pounding on that in order to try to break off Black support.  Ron DeSantis in particular is using this tactic to great success in Florida against both Black and Hispanic Dems.

This is something Democrats are going to have to deal with, or we're going to continue to bleed support from both communities.

And yes, I've known trans friends for decades now, they are awesome, they are wonderful, and they are very much under assault on a daily basis.