It Only Took Fifteen Times

Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker f the House on the fifteenth ballot, late after midnight last night, and has surrendered so much of his power that he may not survive the month in the office.

 

The vote capped a historically dysfunctional week in which members — who were not even allowed to be sworn in before choosing a speaker — sat through vote after vote with the world watching. McCarthy was the first party leader in a century whose race even went past the first ballot.

He'd fumbled a previous bid for speaker in 2015 before it came to a vote and some of his initial backers openly questioned whether it was possible for him to succeed this week given the strength of his opposition.

But McCarthy’s victory also came at a steep price: In exchange for the rebels’ support, he agreed to various concessions (the details of which are still not fully known) that would give conservatives more power to set the agenda, block legislation they dislike, and quickly call a vote to remove McCarthy if he pushes back.

With at least four members still in the “Never Kevin” camp, and the possibility of the majority shrinking through resignations or acts of God, he'll remain a vote or two away from the brink at all times.

He will have to manage expectations and deliver results in high-stakes battles over issues like spending, reauthorizing the farm bill, and, most especially, raising the debt ceiling. One wrong move could lead to a shutdown, financial crisis, or his ouster as speaker, none of which are mutually exclusive.

But for now, the Congress can adopt rules, set up committees, hold hearings, and begin to at least outwardly resemble a normal functioning institution. That's a victory no one should take for granted anymore.

 

The good news is that McCarthy's position is so precarious that it's bound to fail. The bad news is once the Freedom Caucus nutjobs get everything they want from McCarthy as far as committees and assignments go, he's 100% disposable. 

But the real damage will be the rules he's agreed to in the House: No bill can increase spending over five or ten year timeframes, the House Ethics committee has to have a public complaint period, the return of the Holman Rule, which would allow specific punitive government salary cuts or entire program eliminations, and will almost certainly allow the House to default on the national debt, crashing the economy.

And yes, the big one is the Coronavirus Pandemic subcommittee, which is going to be months of stupid people having hearings from "medical professionals" about horse dewormer.

Get ready. These idiots broke the House, and they're going to break the country.