Going Off The Rails, Cali Edition

Even with the Biden infrastructure bill covering a healthy chunk of the cost, California's high-speed rail corridor from San Francisco to LA is going to cost well over $100 billion just for the land rights and environmental impact, let alone the actual rail construction.

 

California's bullet train project that is meant to link Los Angeles to San Francisco faces more cost increases and potential delays, according to an update from project leaders released this week.

High Speed Rail Authority officials on Thursday could not provide an estimated completion date for the original vision pitched to voters but said the price tag for the entire project is now up to $128 billion, a 13% increase from last year's projections.

Construction is currently focused on a segment in the Central Valley, a 170-mile stretch between Bakersfield and Merced. Project officials last year estimated that the route would be ready for riders in 2030. While that is still their goal, the latest update shows service could begin sometime between 2030 and 2033.

The Central Valley segment also faces 41% in cost increases compared to last year's estimates, now expected to cost up to $35.3 billion. Part of the scoping plan changed between this year and last, with this year's estimate including light maintenance facilities and new elements for the station in Bakersfield. Project leaders also pointed to the impacts of COVID-19, inflation and supply chain issues that have raised the prices of labor, concrete and steel.

The Los Angeles to San Francisco project was originally pitched to voters with a $33 billion price tag and an estimate that it would begin operating in 2020. Voters approved $9 billion for the project in 2008.

The bullet train will need funds to finish the Bakersfield to Merced line. In the short term, the HSRA is banking on a potential $8 billion grant from the federal government as part of President Biden's Bipartisan Infrastructure law.

"Additional federal investment is really needed in this transformative project in order to realize its promise to California," said Micah Flores, a spokesman for the project.

When asked if there is a demand for transportation between the two Central Valley cities, Flores noted updated ridership numbers project there could be about 6 million passengers for that section.

Flores also said the project continues to see progress with the creation of 10,000 jobs in the Central Valley — 4,000 of them created in the last four years.

Although there isn't an exact timeline for the completion of the full project between Los Angeles to San Francisco, project leaders noted the environmental review process for 422 of the 500-mile route has been completed. The two final routes requiring environmental reviews include Palmdale to Burbank and Los Angeles to Anaheim.

In the report, a note from HSRA CEO Brian Kelly noted the project does not have any ongoing, dedicated funding beyond 2030.

“More than anything, the project needs stabilized, long-term funding. We have been engaged with our federal partners about this challenge, and we believe that we have a strong strategy to be successful at the federal level," Kelly wrote. " At home, we need an answer on how this project will be funded after 2030. megaprojects that last for decades need long-term, stable funding. Every country around the world that has built high-speed rail has dedicated billions of dollars over several decades to see it through.”

 

We do need long-term federal funding for projects like this, but that federal part includes Republicans who'd never vote for anything they can't personally get rich from in their own states, so it won't happen. Luckily, California, being basically the fifth largest economy on Earth by itself, is getting it done anyway.