Totally Up For Grabs

A new survey finds that as America heads into 2024, non-affiliated and Independent Latinos are rapidly becoming the country's largest swing voter group, making up as much as 20% of all voters in states like California and Florida.

First-time Latino voters are outpacing first-time non-Latino voters in Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, New York, and Texas, according to a report first obtained by Axios.

The big picture: Nonpartisan and unaffiliated Latino voters are on the verge of becoming one of the biggest swing voter groups in the U.S. — raising the stakes for early and regular engagement from both parties.The 2022 election showed the GOP making significant gains among Latinos in Florida but falling well below expectations in Texas, as predicted.

Details: The percentage of early Latino voters between ages 18 and 34 jumped in Arizona, Nevada, New York, and Texas, according to a TelevisaUnivision/L2 analysis reviewed by Axios.Unaffiliated Latino voters now represent the largest percentage of Latino voters in Florida.

Nonpartisan Hispanic registered voters represent a larger percentage than non-partisan non-Hispanic voters in states like Arizona and Nevada.

State of play: The number of Latinos, which includes people of any race, was 62.1 million in 2020 — a growth of 23% in a decade, according to the U.S. Census.Exit polls for U.S. House races in 2022 showed 60% of Latinos backed Democrats while 39% voted for Republicans.

John F. Kennedy won as much as 90% of the Latino vote in 1960, and Jimmy Carter took 82% in 1976.

Between the lines: Latino voting behavior is much more unpredictable and depends on the political dynamics of their local regions, L2 executive vice president Paul Westcott told Axios.California Latinos tend to lean more Democratic and Florida Hispanics more Republican, but that could change, Westcott said.

"This shows that candidates need to get their messages out early and need to go after younger Latino voters," Michele Day, TelevisaUnivision's senior vice president for its Political, Advocacy & Government Group, told Axios.

What's next: Westcott said the 2024 presidential election will likely see record Latino voter turnout and could offer more surprises if parties don't engage.

 

Whichever parties get the Latino vote in 2024 determine the presidency. Democrats are doing a better job of this, but Republicans already have machinery in Florida and Texas and are moving to pick up more House seats in New York, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois, and California. 

Latino voters don't trust either party at this point. We'll see if Dems can start winning them over.