Trump Cards, Con't

Donald Trump's support for 2024 might be going down, but he's still the clear majority favorite as the GOP candidate.

 

The pile-on effect of mounting legal charges against former President Trump may be starting to take a toll, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents saying they believe Trump has done "nothing wrong" dropped 9 points in the last month, from 50% to 41%.

Trump also dropped 6 points in support with that same group when asked whether they were more likely to support Trump or another candidate, if he continues to run for president.

Still, a solid majority — 58% — continue to say they would support Trump as their standard-bearer, so more polling and time would be necessary to see if this is a trend, if it continues and if it has a real effect on his chances in the GOP primary. He continues to lead the field by wide margins.

At the same time, though, Trump has become increasingly toxic with the political middle, and this survey bears that out. A slim majority — 51% — of respondents overall said they think Trump did something illegal, including 52% of independents.

The findings come as Trump is likely set to face yet another indictment, his third, for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, and potentially a fourth in a Georgia election interference case.

 

The crosstabs show Trump retains majority support among Republican voters, although he's finally losing among Republican-leaning independents. But until that group can coalesce around a single non-Trump candidate, nothing's going to happen. Trump will easily win every primary.

 

This isn't a Bernie vs. Biden moment like in 2020, either. Trump has 20-30 point leads or more in every major primary state, and there's no reason to believe things will be different in SC or Arizona vs. Iowa and New Hampshire, not for the GOP outlook anyway.

 

No, Republican voters are going to put an indicted criminal on the ticket, and if rule of law doesn't matter to them, well, rule of law won't matter when they go after the rest of us, either. The law will offer no protection, and it will mean whatever Trump and his voters say it means.

 

Don't think a conviction will make a difference with tens of millions of Americans.