Beshear Audacity Of It All, Con't

 As we close in on the final month before Kentucky goes to the polls to determine whether or not Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear gets to keep his job, a new Emerson College poll finds the incumbent with a huge lead going into the 30-day mark.

 

A new poll from Emerson College and Fox 56 shows Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear with a commanding 16-point lead over Republican nominee attorney general Daniel Cameron.

Out of 450 registered Kentucky voters polled Oct. 1-3, 49% told the independent, nonpartisan pollster they would vote for Beshear if an election between him and Cameron were held today. 33% said they would vote for Cameron. 13% of the respondents were undecided, and 5% said they’d vote for “someone else” despite there being no one else on the ballot.

With 450 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error on the results is +/-4.6%.

The 16-point lead is the largest in any publicly released poll, by a wide margin. Polls conducted from June to late September showed Beshear with anywhere from a 10-point lead to mid-single digits. A poll recently released by the conservative group Club For Growth showed Cameron down six percentage points to Beshear but gaining on the governor in the month of September.

Elections analysis website fivethirtyeight.com gives Emerson College an “A-” rating as a pollster.

Beshear’s campaign has outspent Cameron’s significantly throughout the general election season. Even with multiple political action committees (PACs) supporting Cameron, the amount of pro-Beshear advertisements on television thus far this month has outnumbered Cameron and groups supporting him. During the first full week of October, $1.8 million was spent on ads supporting Beshear compared to roughly $600,000 on ads for Cameron.

Unlike in 2019 — when Beshear defeated controversial former GOP governor Matt Bevin by a razor-thin 0.4 percentage point, 5,000-vote margin — there is no third-party candidate on the ballot this year. In 2019, Libertarian candidate John Hicks received 2% of the vote.

The responses to the poll roughly match up with Kentucky voters’ political behavior in a couple key ways: a majority voted for former Republican president Donald Trump in 2020, and most of them do not like current Democratic President Joe Biden. 55% said they voted for Trump in 2020 while 32% said they voted for Biden — Trump won that election 62-36.

In Kentucky, roughly 46% of registered voters are Republican, 44% are registered Democrat and a little more than 10% are registered as something else, according to State Board of Elections data from September.

However, the responses indicate the population surveyed was registered Democrat at a much lower rate than Kentucky voters on the whole and registered as independent at a much higher rate than the commonwealth’s voters. 31% said they were Democrats, 47% said they were Republicans and 22% said they were Independent or “other” when asked about their party registration.

 

Oversampling of independents isn't a huge deal in a state where basically one in five Democrats are Joe Manchin. If anything, it favors the huge lead.for Beshear.

 

People like the guy. He's been a good governor, he's personable and charismatic, his dad Steve was governor for eight years and like his father, Andy won because the Republican running for reelection was an asshole (back then it was Ernie Fletcher and his state hiring scandal).

Then again, Matt Bevin surprised everyone in 2015 when what the pollsters said was a big Jack Conway win turned into a nine-point loss, so badly called that it spelled the end of the state's biggest polling firm at the time.

So yeah, I'm taking an entire salt mine with these results. Beshear needs to run like he's nine points down, because for all we know, he is.