Iran, So Far Away

If it's summer, it must mean another "Iran is an imminent nuclear threat!" story, only this time the twist is that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is the one who will start the music.  MJ Rosenberg at Media Matters quotes former CIA legend Robert Baer (played by George Clooney in the movie Syriana, Baer also wrote the book the movie was based on) who went on to say that an Israeli attack on Iran could come before the end of September.

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict," Baer explained.

The Israeli air force would attack "Natanz and other nuclear facilities to degrade their capabilities. The Iranians will strike back where they can: Basra, Baghdad," he said, and even Afghanistan. Then the United States would jump into the fight with attacks on Iranian targets. "Our special forces are already looking at Iranian targets in Iraq and across the border [in Iran] which we would strike. What we're facing here is an escalation, rather than a planned out-and-out war. It's a nightmare scenario. We don't have enough troops in the Middle East to fight a war like that." He add, "I think we are looking into the abyss."

Masters asked Baer why the U.S. military is not mobilizing to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war.

It should be noted that the Iranian regime is quite capable of triggering a war with the United States through some combination of colossal stupidity and sheer hatred. In fact, as Baer explained, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard would welcome a war. They are "paranoid." They are "worried about ... what's happening to their country economically, in terms of the oil embargo and other sanctions." And they are worried about a population that increasingly despises the regime.

They need an external enemy. Because we are leaving Iraq, it's Israel. But in order to make this threat believable, they would love an attack on their nuclear facilities, love to go to war in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Iraq and hit us where they could. Their defense is asymmetrical. We can take out all of their armored units. It's of little difference to them, same with their surface-to-air missile sites. It would make little difference because they would use terrorism. They would do serious damage to our fleet in the Gulf.

Given all that, is it possible that the United States would allow Israel to attack when the president knows we would be forced' to join the war on Israel's side?

Baer reasons that without Robert Gates stopping Netanyahu, things could be mobilized pretty quickly as far as an Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.  It would certainly draw the US into the conflict, Congress would insist on that.

From there, well.  Who knows?  China jumps in, possibly?  Russia?  Things could spiral out of control extremely quickly if Israel goes after Iran.  How valid Baer's assumption is, I have no idea, I'm not on the CIA's Middle East desk.  I do know that many Israeli voices have cautioned against such action, and I know relations between Netanyahu and President Obama are pretty much in the basement right now.

One would think Leon Panetta, the new Defense Secretary and former CIA director, might be cognizant of what Israel plans to do militarily.  I sure hope he has plans to put a leash on the guy, otherwise we're truly screwed.

Tinfoil Hats And Tiny Violins

Last Friday I noted that AG Eric Holder had announced a probe into the News Corp. phone voicemail hacking scandal and remarked:

The Obama justice department investigating the parent company of FOX News.

Let that sink in for a moment what that means to the conspiracy-obsessed people who think Holder is coming for their guns and precious bodily fluids.

And lo and behold over the weekend FOX News did not disappoint.  Having ignored the story for a week, the Eric Holder angle finally makes Murdochgate worthy of coverage from the folks at FOX.  Crooks & Liars recounts the crazy as New America Foundation's Jim Pinkerton plays the "politically motivated with hunt" card.

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"White House Anti-Fox News Bias:  Now There's Proof" the FOX chyron screams, while host Jon Scott is shocked -- SHOCKED! -- that anyone would equate FOX News to News of The World, just because they have the same parent company.

And you can bet the rest of the network's host will be breaking out the cries of "witch hunt" and "vendetta" and "Obama's enemies list" over the next week and probably for the foreseeable future.  Count on it.

The Netflix Conundrum: No Good Answers Yet

Here is an excellent article in which a journalist puts the tough question to Netflix: why?  The funny thing is, the answer is muddled and circular, and the journalist calls them out on it.  Just tell us why.  If there's a good reason, we'll listen.

So far, there is no good reason.

A 60% hike means they come out ahead if they lose half of the customers who subscribe to this type of service.  There is debate about whether they want to demolish DVD supplies, but Netflix denies this is the case.  They claim to be surprised by the amount of DVD demand (really??) and without any valid math to back it up say this is the best way to service their customers.

The one point I have to agree with is that it's no longer an excellent value.  I understand business and supply and demand.  To raise prices so sharply without explanation and without even a token offering of improved service is inviting a backlash like the one we are seeing.  There has been no official promise to expand streaming choices.

Netflix had better come up with something soon, or they could be reduced to a cautionary tale of killing the golden goose.

A Grand Fork-Up If I Ever Saw One

From Yahoo News:

Meet John Rolczynski: The Grand Forks, N.D., resident has been trying to tell his legislators that an error in the state's founding document means that technically, North Dakota is not a state.

Sounds like the ravings of a grumpy old man, but as it turns out, Rolczynski was right. News of uncertain statehood has put North Dakota in the spotlight and garnered big buzz.

Here's the story: Back in 1889, North Dakota was carved out of the Dakota Territory and admitted to the Union at the same time as South Dakota. Or so everyone thought.

But the state founders who drafted the constitution left out the key requirement that the governor and other top officials take an oath of office, putting the state constitution in conflict with the federal one. So Rolczynski has been arguing for the last 16 years that the omission made the state illegitimate.

The thing is... he is right.  Senator Tim Mathern has made steps to correct it once and for all.  It's amazing to think something of this magnitude went undiscovered all this time.  I guess it's a reminder that no matter how incredible it may seem, everything should be checked out with an open mind.  Speaking of open mind, the correction has to be put to a vote.  Worst case scenario, this could get really weird really fast.


There also appears to be an issue with the state's eastern border.  More to follow.

No Dealing On The Debt Ceiling, Part 38

GOP Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma has decided he's had enough of this debt ceiling nonsense burning up Washington, so he's deciding to put the fire out with 30 metric gigatons of hyper-flammable extra-explosive napalm.

Republican Senator Tom Coburn said he will unveil a plan tomorrow that would cut $9 trillion from the federal budget over the next 10 years in an effort to curb spending and avoid a default on U.S. debt.

While he said he doesn’t expect his plan to pass Congress, it would offer a wide range of spending cuts and revenue increases that could be used as the basis for bipartisan negotiations on a budget compromise.

“We have $9 trillion worth of savings that are achievable over the next ten years,” Coburn said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. “Pick half of them. Half of them solve our problems.”

With Washington deadlocked on a strategy to cut spending and raise the nation’s borrowing limit before an Aug. 2 deadline, the Oklahoma Republican said he will offer a 10-year plan that cuts defense by $1 trillion, makes changes to Social Security and Medicare, and raises $1 trillion through changes in the tax code, among other things.

Some Republicans, including Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl of Arizona, have resisted any talk of tax increases as part of a budget deal.

“We should focus on the real problem, the spike in spending, and not this phony problem of taxes,” Kyl said on ABC’s “This Week” program. 

It's a great plan, since President Obama showed the GOP is completely uninterested in $4 trillion in deficit reduction, Coburn's plan to shave $9 trillion by closing tax loopholes and cutting defense spending will show the GOP is even less serious about deficit reduction than before.

Not sure what Coburn's doing here other than to show the country just how good the GOP is at wasting everyone's time, but there you are.

Laughing All The Way To Gringott's Bank

The final Harry Potter film has broken all kinds of records this weekend, and Warner Bros. isn't complaining one bit.

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2,” the final movie in the series based on J.K. Rowling’s books about a boy wizard, opened with a record $168.6 million in weekend ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada.

The film, in which the title character meets his nemesis Lord Voldemort in a final showdown, also set records of $43.5 million for midnight showings and $92.1 million in single-day sales on July 15, researcher Hollywood.com Box-Office said today in an e-mailed statement.

“Deathly Hallows 2” ends a series that has generated more than $6.62 billion in worldwide ticket sales for Warner Bros. as of July 15, according to Box Office Mojo. The film, the first in the series to be shown completely in 3-D, is getting a lift from higher prices charged for the three-dimensional format and its placement in more Imax theaters.

The film’s performance was “phenomenal,” said Brandon Gray, editor of Boxofficemojo.com, a website that tracks box- office performance. 

Yeah, back that up.  The Harry Potter film series has grossed $6.62 billion, and will certainly top $7 billion before it ends.  Now that's some serious magic in the works folks, and Warner Bros. is going to be sad it's gone.

Me, I'm waiting for the inevitable Blu-Ray box set.  Preferably on a day Amazon decides to have one of their little massive sales.

Nuked Gingrich, Part 7

Well, we've discovered where Newt Gingrich is leaking campaign money like a sieve from.

Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign is over $1 million in debt, nearly half of which -- $451,946 -- is attributable to his preference for private jets.

That's how much the Gingrich campaign owes to Moby Dick Airways, the same company he used for flights paid for by his former 527 group, American Solutions. In April, May and June of last year, American Solutions gave $677,539 to Moby Dick Airways.

Adding in the $41,453 and $10,478 payments Gingrich's campaign already made to Moby Dick in April and May brings the total amount he paid the private plane company over the half-million mark. His list of campaign expenditures includes 30 separate travel-related payments, most of them for thousands of dollars each.

For comparison, Dave Weigel looks at the travel expenses of the Tim Pawlenty campaign, which total just $11,554.90 to airline companies, most of them commercial airliners.

No wonder Newt is so eager to keep tax deductions for private jets.  He apparently uses them to go freakin' everywhere.

Hey folks, can we stop pretending Newt Gingrich's campaign is anything other than "completely over" now?

StupidiNews!

• Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic and may threaten the Bahamas with heavy rain as early as tomorrow.
• In the wake of last weekend's triple bomb blast in Mumbai, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit India for a three-day trip starting today.
• With the recent death of his half-brother just days ago, a key adviser to Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been killed by suicide bomber.
• The deal to save book retailer Borders has fallen through, leaving the bankrupt company facing liquidation of many of its remaining 405 stores.
• The battle between game makers Electronic Arts and Activision heated up this weekend as the two companies are fighting a web domain war over Activision's Modern Warfare 3 game.

Last Call

With Elizabeth Warren possibly considering a Senate run in Massachusetts for Scott Brown's seat, the job of heading the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is being offered to former Ohio AG Rich Cordray.  However, Republicans are still signaling any nomination for CFPB chief will be blocked.

Obama will formally announce Cordray's nomination to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at an event on Monday.

However, the president's decision to bypass Elizabeth Warren, the bureau's architect whose candidacy has been fiercely opposed by the banking industry, may not signal an easier Senate confirmation fight.

In May, 44 of 47 Senate Republicans sent Obama a letter threatening to block the appointment of any proposed agency chief unless the bureau is reformed to ensure more "accountability and transparency." If the Republicans hold firm, Democrats would lack the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster and win Cordray's confirmation.

Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said Sunday that "the White House still hasn't addressed the concerns raised by Congress."

What my Senator objects to is the fact an agency designed to help consumers in the financial marketplace even exists.  Nor do I expect Cordray's nomination to do anything but languish in the Senate for months, if not years.  Any Obama nominee will be blocked until the Congress finishes out its term in December of next year, that's just fact.  Something may happen during the lame duck session if Obama is re-elected, but I certainly don't expect anything to happen before then, short of a recess appointment.

The GOP isn't interested in government working, you know.

Coming Up Just Short

After a valiant effort, the US Women's National Team took it to extra time in the Women's World Cup final against Japan, but fell short on the penalty kicks, losing 2-2 (1-3 PKO).

Japan had come into the tournament as sentimental favorites, helping rally a nation that had been devastated by a March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami and nuclear disaster. For the United States, it was more a disappointment -- especially considering that the team twice relinquished leads.

While the U.S. had the most chances during the run of play, the Japanese dominated the penalty-kick phase 3-1 to earn the win. The Americans dug themselves a hole by missing their first three kicks.

"We lost to a great team, we really did," U.S. goalkeeper Hope Solo told ESPN, which broadcast the game. "I truly believe that something bigger was pulling for this team."

Americans gathered in bars, living rooms and other places rode an emotional roller coaster, their hopes high on multiple occassions only to be dashed in the end.

Japanese residents were also glued to their televisions, despite the game starting around 4 a.m. local time. In one Tokyo eatery, for instances, scores adorned in the team's colors burst out in joy once their team beat the U.S. squad for the first time in 25 tries.

The shoot-out was mandated only after Japanese midfielder Homare Sawa scored with a few minutes left in extra time, tying the score 2-2. Japan answered a U.S. goal -- also in the overtime period -- when U.S. forward Abby Wambach put her team ahead by heading home a pass from Alex Morgan into the back of the net.

There were many heroes for Japan. One of them was Aya Miyama, who tied up the score with 10 minutes left in regulation by finishing off a scramble in front of the net. Before then, Japan had its back against the wall after Morgan herself scored the game's first goal.

The US blew several chances and allowed Japan back into the game late in regulation and in the second extra period with some sloppy defensive clearing mistakes and some spectacular attacking by the patient Japanese.  Japan never gave up and kept at it, playing arguably the best game of their country's history.

Alex Morgan and Abby Wambach were outstanding and the US should have won, but the Japanese women never lost hope, and more importantly never lost their basic counterattack and capitalize strategy.  The US outshot the Japan team 27-14, but Japan had 6 shots on goal to America's 5, and that was the difference in the game.  The US was wild and overpowering, but both Japanese goals came off bad defensive plays for the Stars & Stripes.

In the penalty kick phase, the US's errant feet cost them the match and the cup.  It's going to be a long time before these ghosts are exorcised, but on the other hand Japan and Homare Sawa played the game of the year to win, and they absolutely deserved to.  Let's not forget that Japan has been through a far more horrendous tragedy than any game on the pitch can make up for...but it helps.

Still, the 2012 London Olympics are the next major challenge for the US, and there's a lot of time to learn from this heartbreaking and humbling loss.  We'll see how they recover.

Cain Unable, Part 2

Herman Cain continues his on-again, off-again Muslim hate on FOX News Sunday.

Show host Chris Wallace asked about the Murfreesboro, TN mosque project Cain took a stand against last week. The planned construction project will build a new home for a Muslim group that's worshiped in the Tennessee town for three decades. But protesters say the group behind the mosque is trying to impose sharia law on America, and they've tied up the project in court for months.

Cain made it clear this morning he stands with the critics.

"Let's go back to the fundamental issue," Cain said. "Islam is both a religion and a set of laws -- Sharia laws. That's the difference between any one of our traditional religions where it's just about religious purposes."

"So, you're saying that any community, if they want to ban a mosque..." Wallace began.

"Yes, they have the right to do that," Cain said. "That's not discriminating based upon their particular religion. There is an aspect of them building that mosque that doesn't get talked about. And the people in the community know what it is and they're talking about it."

To recap, the first amendment does not apply to Islam because it's not a real religion, so America (a country founded in part on the notion of religious freedom) can simply purge the landscape of mosques.  The Constitution only applies where Herman Cain wants it to apply, specifically to protect the tyranny of the majority.  USA! USA! USA!

But don't you dare say Herman Cain hates Islam, because that makes you a racist or something.

Hotdogapalooza

If you thought paying $7 for a hot dog at the ballpark was outrageous, you might want to get out the defibrillator.

The Brockton Rox hope to break the Guinness World Record for most expensive dog by serving an $80, half-pound behemoth, covered in decadent toppings you won't even find at some Michelin-starred restaurants. The Massachusetts-based member of the Canadian-American Association of Professional Baseball will roll out the extravagant frankfurter on July 23 -- National Hot Dog Day.

Thank God the guy from Dillard's didn't grab one of these babies.  He might have been executed.

Ewww

Mother of four and developmental psychologist Erin Carr-Jordan has videotaped more than 50 playlands from fast food restaurants such as Burger King, Chuck E. Cheese's and McDonald's. Her results are not pretty. She sent samples from one location to a lab, which discovered 13 different pathogens that are able to cause disease in children—coliform, four different kinds of staph, likely meningitis and gonorrhea, and more.

I am aware of the "my precious snowflake" syndrome and I do not believe that is the case here.  The facts are disturbing, and the repeated attempts to clean and regulate this shows there is an honest effort to improve this on her end without any attempt to clean an area visited by hundreds if not thousands of kids.  Kids by nature are filthy little critters no matter how careful parents are.  This is inviting infection at a place that serves food to travelers.  A little suds and spraying could go a long way, that's all I'm saying.

Hacked Off In The UK, Part 2

Looks like another domino in the News Corp chain phone hacking scandal has fallen this morning, as former News of the World editor Rebekah Brooks has now been arrested by British police.

The Guardian adds this:

"The MPS has this afternoon, Sunday 17 July, arrested a female in connection with allegations of corruption and phone hacking."

"At approximately 12.00 hrs a 43-year-old woman was arrested by appointment at a London police station by officers from Operation Weeting [phone hacking investigation] together with officers from Operation Elveden [bribing of police officers investigation]. She is currently in custody."

"She was arrested on suspicion of conspiring to intercept communications, contrary to Section1(1) Criminal Law Act 1977 and on suspicion of corruption allegations contrary to Section 1 of the Prevention of Corruption Act 1906."

"The Operation Weeting team is conducting the new investigation into phone hacking. Operation Elveden is the investigation into allegations of inappropriate payments to police. This investigation is being supervised by the IPCC. It would be inappropriate to discuss any further details regarding these cases at this time."

Things are moving fast now, with the obvious assumption being that Brooks will now turn evidence against her former boss, Rupert Murdoch.  If she does, the situation could quickly become untenable for FOX in general.

Could it be that the mighty Rupert Murdoch's media empire is crumbling before our eyes?  It certainly seems like the big fish are ready to talk.  BusinessWeek has this chart (that as of this morning needs updating with Brooks now needing an orange "arrested" circle).

The chart itself is after the jump.

[UPDATE] Scotland Yard chief Sir Paul Stevenson has resigned in the wake of this scandal.  Tomorrow will be very interesting.

No Dealing On The Debt Ceiling, Part 37

The Beltway insiders are signaling this weekend that the GOP is about to fold their hand on the debt ceiling battle.  The LA Times leads off with this piece:

At a closed-door meeting Friday morning, GOP leaders turned to their most trusted budget expert, Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, to explain to rank-and-file members what many others have come to understand: A fiscal meltdown could occur if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.

House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio underscored the point to dispel the notion that failure to allow more borrowing is an option.

"He said if we pass Aug. 2, it would be like 'Star Wars,'" said Rep. Scott DesJarlais, a freshman from Tennessee. "I don't think the people who are railing against raising the debt ceiling fully understand that."

The Washington Post follows up with this:

Key elements for a big deal remain in place. Obama has been clear that he wants one and has started making the case to skeptical factions of his own party that getting the nation’s fiscal house in order is in their best interest. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) also remains committed to an ambitious plan, having told his troops that he didn’t become speaker to do small things. And, perhaps most critically, the markets are demanding it. The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s says Washington must agree to reduce the debt by $4 trillion over 10 years to avert a downgrade.

“We cannot as a country fail to deal with the debt threat,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), one of the bipartisan “Gang of Six” senators who tried to reach an agreement in recent months. “Every serious economic analysis tells us we’ve reached the danger zone. And just kicking the can down the road? That can’t be. We’re better than that. We’ve got to be better than that.”

And the NY Times finishes the trifecta with this story:

With the Aug. 2 deadline looming, Mr. Obama says a default would have calamitous consequences, jeopardizing the timely payment of Social Security benefits and driving up interest rates for the government and private borrowers alike.

Some Republicans say they do not worry much about being punished by their constituents for playing hardball with their votes on the debt limit and thus pushing the nation to the brink of default. And besides, they doubt that the consequences of a default would be as dire as Mr. Obama and many economists say.

Representative Jeff Landry, a freshman Republican from Louisiana, said, “I don’t believe, if we fail to raise the debt ceiling, that we will default.” Even if the debt ceiling is reached, Mr. Landry said, the government has more than enough revenue coming in each month to pay principal and interest on the debt.

Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a freshman Republican from Pennsylvania, said a delay in raising the debt limit need not cause a default because the Treasury secretary could set priorities in paying government obligations. Many Republicans would give priority to Social Security, Medicare, veterans’ benefits and paychecks for the armed forces. The Obama administration rejects that approach as unworkable. 

All of these stories have the same general framework:  the House GOP leadership is resigned to raising the debt ceiling by coming to a deal with the Dems, but the people standing in the way of that deal are the House Republican freshmen, driven by Tea Party ideology.

In other words, if this blows up in America's face, it's the Republicans' fault.  Specifically, it's the Tea Party's fault.  Not only is the Village love affair with the Tea Party clearly over, but these guys are clearly being set up to take the fall if they blast a hole in the side of our economy and we take on water.

I've long said that the debt ceiling would be raised, period.  Only when Obama became President did it become a problem.  Only when the Tea Party gained power did it become a problem.  The Village is now strongly hinting that the Republicans are responsible for this mess, and that's making the GOP leadership very, very nervous.

So when a deal comes, what will the Tea Party do?  Will we start seeing plans for a third party that splits the Republicans?

One could hope.