Ten For '09

And now, ten things I wish would happen in 2009, but won't.

1. CNN's Ruben Navarette will stop rationalizing the GOP's institutionalized racism.
2. Dick Cheney will write a tell all book about how stupid Dubya really is.
3. Mike Huckabee will leave politics for good and start a band.
4. Obama will lose his temper. Once. Just once. That's all it will take.
5. Five words: Super Bowl Champion Carolina Panthers.
6. NBC will bring back John Laroquette in his own show. Again.
7. The Ghostbusters video game will not only be on time, but it'll kick serious ass.
8. Same goes for Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3.
9. Quiznos brings back the Triple Q sub.
10. Obama fixes the universe.

Would be nice, huh.

The Million Dollar Question

The question isn't "What the hell is Blagojevich thinking?" but, as John Cole brilliantly points out:

Not to be too much of a smart-ass, but since when has anyone ever paid a political price for going against Harry Reid? Has it ever happened? On the other hand, Jane may be right. In my limited time as a Democrat it sure does seem like the only time Democrats take a stand is when they are attacking… another Democrat. And, if you ask Joe Lieberman, they don’t even do it very well then.

As to Blagojevich, it really isn’t that ballsy of a move at all. The only thing he has going for him right now is the legitimate power he commands as governor. Democrats hate him. Republicans hate him. His approval ratings are lower than Bush. Patrick Fitzgerald has him by the short hairs on tape. All he can do is keep insisting he is innocent and act as if nothing has happened. He really has no other options.

And there you go. Everything you need to know about Rod Blagojevich is summed up by the fact Harry Reid is a spineless twit. The one thing the GOP does better than the Democrats is enforce party order. Once again, the Dems look like morons because the party leadership gets called on their bluff and then does exactly nothing about it. The GOP has been doing this to the Dems for years, and apparently Blagojevich was actually paying attention.

Go figure. Just seat Roland Burris already and be done with it.

Alberto Gonzales: Professional Victim

Steve Benen nails it.

GONZALES FEELS SORRY FOR HIMSELF.... Former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales left office in disgrace 16 months ago, and has kept a low profile since. His reputation has not improved in the interim -- Gonzales has struggled to find a law firm willing to hire him -- but at least he hasn't said or done anything ridiculous since his departure from public life.

Gonzales, however, is apparently interested in some kind of comeback. The former A.G. is writing a book about his tenure in the Bush administration and chatted with the Wall Street Journal about how mean everyone has been to him.

"What is it that I did that is so fundamentally wrong, that deserves this kind of response to my service?" he said during an interview Tuesday, offering his most extensive comments since leaving government.

During a lunch meeting two blocks from the White House, where he served under his longtime friend, President George W. Bush, Mr. Gonzales said that "for some reason, I am portrayed as the one who is evil in formulating policies that people disagree with. I consider myself a casualty, one of the many casualties of the war on terror."

Is Gonzales really that confused about what he did that was "so fundamentally wrong"? I suppose he proved during multiple congressional hearings that his memory is similar to that of someone who's suffered serious head trauma, but Gonzales' list of scandals is hard to forget.

Just off the top of my head, there was the U.S. Attorney purge scandal, Gonzales signing torture memos, his conduct in John Ashcroft's hospital room, his oversight of a Justice Department that was engaged in widespread employment discrimination, and his gutting of the DoJ's Civil Rights Division. Gonzales was even investigated by the department's Inspector General on allegations of perjury and obstruction.

On warrantless-searches, the Military Commissions Act, policy on detainees at Guantanamo Bay, and the Geneva Conventions, Gonzales was a disaster. On managing the Justice Department, he filled his staff with Pat Robertson acolytes, feigned ignorance while structural disasters unfolded, and showed shocking tolerance for corruption and politicization of a department that, for the benefit of the nation and the rule of law, needed to maintain independence.

And I'll add a hearty "screw you" to Gonzo and ask him to stand in the same room with the family of any of our troops or any of the 9/11 families, any Iraqi, Afghan, Pakistani family that got bombed, or the family of any of the millions killed since 9/11 and say to their face that he believes he is a casualty.

The Ought Nine Outlook

As promised, my predictions for 2009:

1. Obama's stimulus package is passed, but it makes Bush's tax cuts permanent. It fails to do much of anything and real unemployment rises dramatically as entire malls close across the country and millions in retail lose their jobs.
   
2. The S&P 500 indeed drops to 500. The Dow hovers around the 5k mark. A number of banks go under and are bought out and merged. The financial sector sits on the TARP money and housing prices continue to tumble. Another bank bailout is passed, and it fuels a major wave of bank consolidation across the country. Job losses in the sector for the year approach 250,000.
   
3. Benjamin Netanyahu is elected Israeli PM, and Israel bombs Iranian "nuclear sites", forcing a very ugly global confrontation. The US backs Israel, and Iraq and Afghanistan spiral out of control as a result. Reprisal attacks against American interests if not the US itself rage on.
   
4. GM closes its doors, putting hundreds of thousands out of work. Chrysler is spared barely, merging with Ford, and the remaining automakers band together to share suppliers. Still, layoffs in the rust belt states are brutal, with real unenployment in Michigan hitting 25%.
   
5. Universal health care fails to pass at all thanks to Blue Dog Democrats and prime-time commercials showing huge lines outside ER rooms and doctor's offices. As a result, Tom Daschle resigns his cabinet position. The bill that does pass is a gift package to Big Pharma that greatly curtails generic drugs.
   
6. California, New York, and Michigan declare bankruptcy. Essential government services in those states will be shut down for a time while Washington drags its ass. Other states will begin to ask for billions in bailout money.
   
7. The resulting riots in a major American city forces Obama to call in the Army. At least one GOP lawmaker will publicly say Obama should be impeached for doing so. Bonus points if that lawmaker turns out to be somebody other than Ron Paul.
   
8. The Blagojevich appointment of former Illinois AG Burris to Obama's old seat and the Senate's refusal to seat him causes nothing but problems for the Dems as Burris v. United States reaches the Supreme Court. The Senate loses the case. Burris is greatly pressured by the Dems to resign once the state law in Illinois is changed to accomodate a special election and/or Blagojevich is impeached and removed...that is if the impeachment doesn't go to the Supreme court too.
   
9. Vladimir Putin once again becomes President of Russia and makes his move demanding the Eurozone pay up for oil and gas. Oil goes to $80 a barrel.
   
10. At least one major assassination attempt on Obama's life is made/broken up as he is blamed for the miserable economy, the riots, and the job losses. The country rallies for a while around him, but the GOP sets the table for taking back Congress in 2010.
    

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

StupidiNews!

• An extra second is being added to official clocks worldwide tonight.
• Republicans consider accusing Bush and GOP lawmakers that supported the bailout as guilty of "socialism".
• California's AG sues Bush over his changes to the Endangered Species Act.
• Broadcaster Viacom is threatening to pull 19 cable channels from Time Warner customers tomorrow.
• "Information Overload" could be costing US workers almost a trillion dollars in productivity.

Dear America:

"Pay no attention to the hundred million seniors and poor on government Medicare and Medicaid already, or the 45 million with no health care whatsoever...Obama's going to ruin health care in the US with his big government approach!"

--Sally Pipes, WSJ

The Carrot And Stick Approach

We're now getting to the point of Israel's Operation Cast Lead where the current status quo, in this case Israeli air strikes, are all but exhausted as a tactical and political option. Valuable tactical targets will have moved or have already been hit, and politically the pressure on Israel to cease fire from both within and externally has grown considerably. The longer this goes on, the more Israel stands to lose.

With reports of Israeli forces interfering with humanitarian aid and the conflict giving Hamas a reason to be in the spotlight, the Israelis are considering calling a 48 hour truce to give humanitarian efforts a chance to work...but also to give Israel the opportunity to prepare a major ground offensive.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that Israel's military offensive on the Gaza Strip would continue for as long as necessary to achieve the goals of the defense establishment against the ruling Hamas regime.

"The Gaza offensive has begun and will not end.... until our goals our reached, we are continuing according to the plan," Olmert said.

The prime minister's statement came in response to reports that defense officials intended to recommend a 48-hour truce to abate the war against Hamas and embark on a temporary truce before it became necessary to begin a significant ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

The thing is, Israel now either has to commit to withdrawal or a major ground invasion in the next few days. Hamas is betting it can declare victory in either situation once again. Given the tough talk out of Olmert over the last few days, it looks like that ground offensive is a very distinct possibility.

Things could very quickly get a lot worse, and we've still got three weeks until Obama is even sworn in.

The Right Way, The Wrong Way, And The Blago Way

The Blago way in this case naming a successor to Obama's Senate seat and daring the world to do something about it.

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is expected Tuesday to name former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris to the U.S. Senate, CNN affiliates the Chicago Tribune and WLS-TV reported, citing sources familiar with the decision.

Burris' appointment would fill President-elect Barack Obama's former Senate seat. Blagojevich is to announce his choice at a news conference at 3 p.m. ET.

Burris, 71, is African-American. According to the newspaper, he expressed interest in the Senate seat shortly after the November 4 election.

The news comes as Democratic leaders in the Senate warned that they would reject any Senate pick made by Blagojevich, who faces criminal charges.

So, with Blagojevich calling the Dems bluff, the ball's firmly in Obama's court now. If he approves of Burris, he looks like an ass for backing Blago, plus Burris can never live down the appointment scandal. If Obama rejects Burris he looks like an ass for dumping on one of Obama's own political heroes and it'll be clear that Blago will simply try again, and if he does nothing, he looks like an ass for doing nothing.

Harry Reid basically is saying Blago can go to hell.

The Senate will not seat Roland Burris if Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich attempts to appoint him, a Democratic leadership aide said.

Majority Leader Harry Reid views Burris as "unacceptable," the aide said.

The die, as they say, is cast.

PS: Hey Harry, where was this sudden backbone six months ago on FISA?

[UPDATE] Blago has balls. Real balls.

"Please don't allow the allegations against me to taint this good and honest man," Blagojevich said.

Nice.

House Of Pain

CNN is reporting the Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 US markets fell a record 18 percent for October. The CSI is always about six weeks behind the times, but the numbers are still bad bad bad given that the effect of the housing markets on the rest of the economy can reverberate for months down the road.

If housing prices are still falling (and this confirms they are and will be well into 2009) there's no real chance at recovery for the economy in the forseeable future.

Year-End Clearance

It's "Predictions for 2009" time 'round the 'net, and we start with the Frog Pond's ertswhile Steven D's pretty detailed list of what he thinks will go down in '09. Highlights:

* Unemployment (real unemployment, not the massaged numbers the media reports) will hit 20% or more in the USA this Spring.

* Corporate Bankruptcies will hit record numbers and will include many, many major retailers, and automobile related companies, including one or more of the Big 3 (Chrysler and GM especially).

* Automotive Lobbyists will scream loudly to change the bankruptcy code to make Chapter 11 (the reorganization provisions) more corporate friendly and less labor friendly. Expect those to pass easily.

* Individual bankruptcies and foreclosures will also increase spectacularly. Do not expect much relief for homeowners, individuals and small businesses, however. Senate Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats will see to that.

* Health Care Reform will pass, but it will be too little, and provide too many bones for Big Pharma and the Health Insurance companies to be of any real benefit to most Americans. Health Care costs will continue to rise for most people.

But the gobsmacker is that there's a couple of pretty disturbing social predictions that I see as plausible enough to explore further:

* Riots will break out this summer in one or more major American cities. The causes could be unemployment, food shortages, hot weather, racial animus, anger at police violence, or all of the above.

* The number of assassination threats against Obama will skyrocket. The FBI and Secret Service will break up more than one serious conspiracy. Other political figures will also see increased numbers of death threats with the risk that various politicians or other prominent leaders will be killed.

* Food shortages may occur later in the year, particularly of produce.

Considering this morning's StupidiNews story on a US Army War College professor gaming out scenarios where this sort of thing happens and the US military's role should include the effort "to rapidly determine the parameters defining the legitimate use of military force inside the United States", it's worth considering the effects of that.

Things are already pretty bad in a number of major American cities. Facing another year of draconian state and local budget cuts greatly affecting law enforcement, mass layoffs continuing across the country, and real unemployment approaching one in five if not one in four Americans, I happen to think there's a significant amount of merit to the prediction of shortages, unrest, and some sort of major incident occurring in a US city in 2009 or 2010.

I'll have my own predictions up in the next day.

StupidiNews!

• Israel's self-described "all out war" against Hamas continues for a fourth day.
• How would America deal with economic-fueled domestic unrest in a worst-case scenario?
• The Treasury Department plans to buy $5 billion in GMAC stock.
• FedEx will give up a Super Bowl ad slot this year to save to company money.
• The National Archives is struggling to deal with eight years of a Bush data dump.

The Pursuit Of Perfection

Who says there's nothing perfect left in these troubled times? The Detroit Lions have found their perfectly awful season as their 31-21 loss to Green Bay yesterday sealed their place in history at 0-16.

The 1976 expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0-14, were the last team to complete a season without a win.

“I’ve got to live with this,” Lions center Dominic Raiola said. “This is on my resume.”

It’s also on the resume of Lions coach Rod Marinelli, whose job is in jeopardy.

The Lions’ last loss didn’t come without a fight. After falling behind 24-14 midway through the fourth quarter, Kevin Smith’s 9-yard touchdown run put Detroit back within a field goal.

But Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers responded with a 71-yard touchdown pass to Donald Driver, and the Lions’ Dan Orlovsky threw an interception on fourth-and-27 with 3 minutes left, dooming Detroit to futility of historic proportion.

“It’s just kind of numb,” veteran kicker Jason Hanson said. “It’s here. It’s been coming, though, a train rolling down the tracks for a while. We tried to stop it. We couldn’t.”

The Lions were building toward this for years and now have lost 23 of their last 24 games.

The 0-16 record will be a lasting testimony to the Matt Millen era.

Is there any more appropriate symbol of 2008's crushing futility than to see the most financially ravaged major city in the country field the worst team in modern NFL history and complete the dubious record on the last weekend of arguably the worst year in America in generations?

If the smashmouth, fight back Pittsburgh Steelers and their 3 Super Bowl wins represented America's soul during the blue-collar 70's, the showtime Broadway Joe-led San Francisco 49ers the team of the high-flying 80's with their 4 wins captured America's spirit, and the domination of the Aikman-era "Science of Football" Dallas Cowboys epitomized the high-tech 90's with their 3 wins in 4 seasons represented our rise to the "unipolar moment" of the Clinton era, the NFL team that represents this country's very essence during the Big Zeroes may indeed deserve to be the Detroit Lions, a team that steadily grew worse from 9-7 in 2000 until this year's nadir of absolute zero as we head into the worst financial storm in generations.

If that's not a perfect parable for this country over the last eight years under its current management, I don't know what is.

StupidiNews!

• A third day of Israeli airstrikes rock the Gaza Strip with ground troops ready to enter as Hamas continues to launch Kassam rockets.
• First Lady Laura Bush calls the shoe tossed at her husband by an Iraqi reporter "an assault".
• One in ten Floridians is on food stamps and many more qualify.
• California's $42 billion budget shortfall and 8.4% unemployment rate is taking its toll across the state.
• 2008 marked the first year the internet overtook print as America's primary source of news.

The Real Problem With Israel And The Palestinians

As we learn today that the Egyptian government has fired on Palestinians fleeing Gaza through the Egypt crossing, it's time to reflect on the views from the wingnut section of the universe. There's a distinct chunk of people out there who honestly believe that the problem with Israel is that they haven't killed enough Palestinians yet.

No, really, that's the argument. That's the sentiment you're seeing on wingnut blog after wingnut blog. Jules Crittenden mocks "liberal hand wringing" and bemoans:

I don’t know about you, but I sure hope Palestinians lobbing missiles and Israelis retaliating doesn’t amount to a serious challenge of Obama’s ability to lead the free world, or we’re in trouble.

Nice guy, Jules. The guys at Power Line seem to think the problem is those terrible Hamas guys keep ending up in places where Israeli airstrikes have no choice but to flatten Palestinian civilians.

Hamas' conduct is illegal and evil. Under the circumstances, the Bush administration's instruction to Israel to avoid civilian casualties at best represents a kind of confusion regarding the challenges Israel faces on each of its borders. The challenges are akin to those the United States faces in its own engagements in the region, so it is hard to believe that the problem is one of intellectual clarity rather than political cowardice.

If only the Israelis would just have enough balls to turn Gaza into a parking lot, this whole thing would be over. And that's the mild stuff compared to the completely unhinged Pamela Geller over at Atlas Shrugs, who honestly believes that Hamas's rockets are in fact proof of the Second Holocaust and completely fails to see the irony in wanting to exterminate Palestinians from the face of the Earth.

If only the Palestinians would have the grace to just die already. Rounding up a million and a half people, putting a huge concrete wall around them, starving them out and then dropping bombs on them until they stop complaining about their "merciful" conditions is a perfectly logical thing to some people.

And folks wonder why there's no peace in the Middle East.

Thanking Dubya

Condi Rice still carries the "work wife" torch for her boss, as she explains to CBS that Americans of all stripes will soon "start to thank the President for what he's done" over the last eight years.

"So we can sit here and talk about the long record, but what I would say to you is that this president has faced tougher circumstances than perhaps at any time since the end of World War II, and he has delivered policies that are going to stand the test of time," Rice said in an interview that aired on CBS' "Sunday Morning."

The secretary of state brushed off reports that suggest the United States' image is suffering abroad. She praised the administration's ability to change the conversation in the Middle East.

"This isn't a popularity contest. I'm sorry, it isn't. What the administration is responsible to do is to make good choices about Americans' interests and values in the long run -- not for today's headlines, but for history's judgment," she said.

"And I am quite certain that when the final chapters are written and it's clear that Saddam Hussein's Iraq is gone in favor of an Iraq that is favorable to the future of the Middle East; when the history is written of a U.S.-China relationship that is better than it's ever been; an India relationship that is deeper and better than it's ever been; a relationship with Brazil and other countries of the left of Latin America, better than it's ever been ...

"When one looks at what we've been able to do in terms of changing the conversation in the Middle East about democracy and values, this administration will be judged well, and I'll wait for history's judgment and not today's headlines."

On its face, Rice's protestations are equal parts stupidity and delusion. She's been the weakest Secretary of State in modern history, serving as the Bush administration's Apologist-In-Chief more than anything else. Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Georgia, Israel, the Palestinian territories, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, the EU, Haiti, Indonesia, and pretty much the entire continent of Africa -- all places where our foreign policy has made things worse and in many instances has cost thousands of lives if not hundreds of thousands. Arrogance, ineptness, stubborness, stupidity, ignorance...these are the hallmarks of Bush foreign policy, and while Colin Powell certainly has his own crimes to pay for, Condi Rice bears a large butcher's bill herself, first as Bush's intel wrangler, then as Bush's cleaning crew.

But as ridiculous as Condi Rice's argument is (her assumption that Bush's policies will "stand the test of time" is both delusional and horrifying) she's correct on one level: I do thank Bush for being such a singularly terrible leader in every sense of the term that America chose to elect Barack Obama specifically to fix all the things Bush fucked up.

So, she's right on that account. We'll soon be thanking Bush for not being President anymore, and that soon will be about 12:01 PM on January 20.