Sunday, July 17, 2011

Last Call

With Elizabeth Warren possibly considering a Senate run in Massachusetts for Scott Brown's seat, the job of heading the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is being offered to former Ohio AG Rich Cordray.  However, Republicans are still signaling any nomination for CFPB chief will be blocked.

Obama will formally announce Cordray's nomination to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at an event on Monday.

However, the president's decision to bypass Elizabeth Warren, the bureau's architect whose candidacy has been fiercely opposed by the banking industry, may not signal an easier Senate confirmation fight.

In May, 44 of 47 Senate Republicans sent Obama a letter threatening to block the appointment of any proposed agency chief unless the bureau is reformed to ensure more "accountability and transparency." If the Republicans hold firm, Democrats would lack the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster and win Cordray's confirmation.

Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said Sunday that "the White House still hasn't addressed the concerns raised by Congress."

What my Senator objects to is the fact an agency designed to help consumers in the financial marketplace even exists.  Nor do I expect Cordray's nomination to do anything but languish in the Senate for months, if not years.  Any Obama nominee will be blocked until the Congress finishes out its term in December of next year, that's just fact.  Something may happen during the lame duck session if Obama is re-elected, but I certainly don't expect anything to happen before then, short of a recess appointment.

The GOP isn't interested in government working, you know.

Coming Up Just Short

After a valiant effort, the US Women's National Team took it to extra time in the Women's World Cup final against Japan, but fell short on the penalty kicks, losing 2-2 (1-3 PKO).

Japan had come into the tournament as sentimental favorites, helping rally a nation that had been devastated by a March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami and nuclear disaster. For the United States, it was more a disappointment -- especially considering that the team twice relinquished leads.

While the U.S. had the most chances during the run of play, the Japanese dominated the penalty-kick phase 3-1 to earn the win. The Americans dug themselves a hole by missing their first three kicks.

"We lost to a great team, we really did," U.S. goalkeeper Hope Solo told ESPN, which broadcast the game. "I truly believe that something bigger was pulling for this team."

Americans gathered in bars, living rooms and other places rode an emotional roller coaster, their hopes high on multiple occassions only to be dashed in the end.

Japanese residents were also glued to their televisions, despite the game starting around 4 a.m. local time. In one Tokyo eatery, for instances, scores adorned in the team's colors burst out in joy once their team beat the U.S. squad for the first time in 25 tries.

The shoot-out was mandated only after Japanese midfielder Homare Sawa scored with a few minutes left in extra time, tying the score 2-2. Japan answered a U.S. goal -- also in the overtime period -- when U.S. forward Abby Wambach put her team ahead by heading home a pass from Alex Morgan into the back of the net.

There were many heroes for Japan. One of them was Aya Miyama, who tied up the score with 10 minutes left in regulation by finishing off a scramble in front of the net. Before then, Japan had its back against the wall after Morgan herself scored the game's first goal.

The US blew several chances and allowed Japan back into the game late in regulation and in the second extra period with some sloppy defensive clearing mistakes and some spectacular attacking by the patient Japanese.  Japan never gave up and kept at it, playing arguably the best game of their country's history.

Alex Morgan and Abby Wambach were outstanding and the US should have won, but the Japanese women never lost hope, and more importantly never lost their basic counterattack and capitalize strategy.  The US outshot the Japan team 27-14, but Japan had 6 shots on goal to America's 5, and that was the difference in the game.  The US was wild and overpowering, but both Japanese goals came off bad defensive plays for the Stars & Stripes.

In the penalty kick phase, the US's errant feet cost them the match and the cup.  It's going to be a long time before these ghosts are exorcised, but on the other hand Japan and Homare Sawa played the game of the year to win, and they absolutely deserved to.  Let's not forget that Japan has been through a far more horrendous tragedy than any game on the pitch can make up for...but it helps.

Still, the 2012 London Olympics are the next major challenge for the US, and there's a lot of time to learn from this heartbreaking and humbling loss.  We'll see how they recover.

Cain Unable, Part 2

Herman Cain continues his on-again, off-again Muslim hate on FOX News Sunday.


Show host Chris Wallace asked about the Murfreesboro, TN mosque project Cain took a stand against last week. The planned construction project will build a new home for a Muslim group that's worshiped in the Tennessee town for three decades. But protesters say the group behind the mosque is trying to impose sharia law on America, and they've tied up the project in court for months.

Cain made it clear this morning he stands with the critics.

"Let's go back to the fundamental issue," Cain said. "Islam is both a religion and a set of laws -- Sharia laws. That's the difference between any one of our traditional religions where it's just about religious purposes."

"So, you're saying that any community, if they want to ban a mosque..." Wallace began.

"Yes, they have the right to do that," Cain said. "That's not discriminating based upon their particular religion. There is an aspect of them building that mosque that doesn't get talked about. And the people in the community know what it is and they're talking about it."

To recap, the first amendment does not apply to Islam because it's not a real religion, so America (a country founded in part on the notion of religious freedom) can simply purge the landscape of mosques.  The Constitution only applies where Herman Cain wants it to apply, specifically to protect the tyranny of the majority.  USA! USA! USA!

But don't you dare say Herman Cain hates Islam, because that makes you a racist or something.

Hotdogapalooza

If you thought paying $7 for a hot dog at the ballpark was outrageous, you might want to get out the defibrillator.
The Brockton Rox hope to break the Guinness World Record for most expensive dog by serving an $80, half-pound behemoth, covered in decadent toppings you won't even find at some Michelin-starred restaurants. The Massachusetts-based member of the Canadian-American Association of Professional Baseball will roll out the extravagant frankfurter on July 23 -- National Hot Dog Day.


Thank God the guy from Dillard's didn't grab one of these babies.  He might have been executed.

Ewww

Mother of four and developmental psychologist Erin Carr-Jordan has videotaped more than 50 playlands from fast food restaurants such as Burger King, Chuck E. Cheese's and McDonald's. Her results are not pretty. She sent samples from one location to a lab, which discovered 13 different pathogens that are able to cause disease in children—coliform, four different kinds of staph, likely meningitis and gonorrhea, and more.
I am aware of the "my precious snowflake" syndrome and I do not believe that is the case here.  The facts are disturbing, and the repeated attempts to clean and regulate this shows there is an honest effort to improve this on her end without any attempt to clean an area visited by hundreds if not thousands of kids.  Kids by nature are filthy little critters no matter how careful parents are.  This is inviting infection at a place that serves food to travelers.  A little suds and spraying could go a long way, that's all I'm saying.




Hacked Off In The UK, Part 2

Looks like another domino in the News Corp chain phone hacking scandal has fallen this morning, as former News of the World editor Rebekah Brooks has now been arrested by British police.

The Guardian adds this:

"The MPS has this afternoon, Sunday 17 July, arrested a female in connection with allegations of corruption and phone hacking."

"At approximately 12.00 hrs a 43-year-old woman was arrested by appointment at a London police station by officers from Operation Weeting [phone hacking investigation] together with officers from Operation Elveden [bribing of police officers investigation]. She is currently in custody."

"She was arrested on suspicion of conspiring to intercept communications, contrary to Section1(1) Criminal Law Act 1977 and on suspicion of corruption allegations contrary to Section 1 of the Prevention of Corruption Act 1906."

"The Operation Weeting team is conducting the new investigation into phone hacking. Operation Elveden is the investigation into allegations of inappropriate payments to police. This investigation is being supervised by the IPCC. It would be inappropriate to discuss any further details regarding these cases at this time."

Things are moving fast now, with the obvious assumption being that Brooks will now turn evidence against her former boss, Rupert Murdoch.  If she does, the situation could quickly become untenable for FOX in general.

Could it be that the mighty Rupert Murdoch's media empire is crumbling before our eyes?  It certainly seems like the big fish are ready to talk.  BusinessWeek has this chart (that as of this morning needs updating with Brooks now needing an orange "arrested" circle).

The chart itself is after the jump.

[UPDATE] Scotland Yard chief Sir Paul Stevenson has resigned in the wake of this scandal.  Tomorrow will be very interesting.

No Dealing On The Debt Ceiling, Part 37

The Beltway insiders are signaling this weekend that the GOP is about to fold their hand on the debt ceiling battle.  The LA Times leads off with this piece:

At a closed-door meeting Friday morning, GOP leaders turned to their most trusted budget expert, Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, to explain to rank-and-file members what many others have come to understand: A fiscal meltdown could occur if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.

House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio underscored the point to dispel the notion that failure to allow more borrowing is an option.

"He said if we pass Aug. 2, it would be like 'Star Wars,'" said Rep. Scott DesJarlais, a freshman from Tennessee. "I don't think the people who are railing against raising the debt ceiling fully understand that."

The Washington Post follows up with this:

Key elements for a big deal remain in place. Obama has been clear that he wants one and has started making the case to skeptical factions of his own party that getting the nation’s fiscal house in order is in their best interest. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) also remains committed to an ambitious plan, having told his troops that he didn’t become speaker to do small things. And, perhaps most critically, the markets are demanding it. The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s says Washington must agree to reduce the debt by $4 trillion over 10 years to avert a downgrade.

“We cannot as a country fail to deal with the debt threat,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), one of the bipartisan “Gang of Six” senators who tried to reach an agreement in recent months. “Every serious economic analysis tells us we’ve reached the danger zone. And just kicking the can down the road? That can’t be. We’re better than that. We’ve got to be better than that.”

And the NY Times finishes the trifecta with this story:

With the Aug. 2 deadline looming, Mr. Obama says a default would have calamitous consequences, jeopardizing the timely payment of Social Security benefits and driving up interest rates for the government and private borrowers alike.

Some Republicans say they do not worry much about being punished by their constituents for playing hardball with their votes on the debt limit and thus pushing the nation to the brink of default. And besides, they doubt that the consequences of a default would be as dire as Mr. Obama and many economists say.

Representative Jeff Landry, a freshman Republican from Louisiana, said, “I don’t believe, if we fail to raise the debt ceiling, that we will default.” Even if the debt ceiling is reached, Mr. Landry said, the government has more than enough revenue coming in each month to pay principal and interest on the debt.

Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a freshman Republican from Pennsylvania, said a delay in raising the debt limit need not cause a default because the Treasury secretary could set priorities in paying government obligations. Many Republicans would give priority to Social Security, Medicare, veterans’ benefits and paychecks for the armed forces. The Obama administration rejects that approach as unworkable. 

All of these stories have the same general framework:  the House GOP leadership is resigned to raising the debt ceiling by coming to a deal with the Dems, but the people standing in the way of that deal are the House Republican freshmen, driven by Tea Party ideology.

In other words, if this blows up in America's face, it's the Republicans' fault.  Specifically, it's the Tea Party's fault.  Not only is the Village love affair with the Tea Party clearly over, but these guys are clearly being set up to take the fall if they blast a hole in the side of our economy and we take on water.

I've long said that the debt ceiling would be raised, period.  Only when Obama became President did it become a problem.  Only when the Tea Party gained power did it become a problem.  The Village is now strongly hinting that the Republicans are responsible for this mess, and that's making the GOP leadership very, very nervous.

So when a deal comes, what will the Tea Party do?  Will we start seeing plans for a third party that splits the Republicans?

One could hope.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Don't Tell Me It's Back

And it is, as the Obama Administration has asked and received a stay on a federal court order to stop enforcing it, meaning for now DADT is the law of the land again.
 Obama signed legislation in December to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," but the bill gave the Pentagon an unlimited time frame to implement the change, leading up to a final "certification" of the repeal.

In the meantime, a separate challenge to the policy had advanced in the federal court system, where last week the 9th U.S. Circuit Court panel upheld a lower-court decision declaring "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" unconstitutional and ordered the military to immediately lift the ban.

In their latest ruling, the judges said that, based on information provided by government lawyers, senior military officials have made plans to end "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and that certification will be presented to Obama by the end of July or in early August.

The judges' three-page order also states that only one military service member has been discharged for being openly gay since the passage of the repeal act in December.

The judges stated that "in order to provide this court with an opportunity to consider fully the issues presented in light of these previously undisclosed facts" it was temporarily reinstating the policy.
But the order also blocks the military "from investigating, penalizing or discharging anyone from the military pursuant to the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy."


So the law exists, technically...but it can't be enforced, and the Pentagon will certify its end by the end of next month.  It seems more a procedural hurdle more than anything else, but that's the way it goes, I guess.

A Bunch Of Dim Bulbs

House Republicans have decided to defund the provision in the most recent energy bill that enforces the removal of incandescent 100 watt lightbulbs, calling it a victory for choice and freedom.

House Republicans, led by Texans Michael Burgess and Joe Barton, have been on a tear to undo the bulb provision, and though a Barton-led effort failed earlier in the week, Burgess' success opens the door for more.


Environmentalists and Democratic supporters, as well as some Republicans, are upset that gains in efficiency are at risk.

During the House debate, Burgess warned that "starting January 1, if Home Depot or your local grocery store has the 100-watt bulb in their inventory, they will not be allowed to sell them. That means they will take all 100-watt bulbs off the shelf, and they will never see the consumer. My amendment will allow the stores to continue to sell what they have in stock. The 2007 provision never said that these companies could not make the bulb; it said that they couldn't be sold."


"Further," Burgess said, "if a manufacturer should choose to continue to make 100-watt bulbs, they would be permitted under this language, as there is clearly a market based on the thousands of consumers who have contacted Congress upset about their inability to buy 100-watt light bulbs. This is about the consumer driving the market, not the federal government deciding the market."

Barton, who's been one of the most visible opponents of the bulb requirement, said of the House vote: "It is the first step in restoring consumer choice and ending government intrusion into our homes."

House Republicans then remarked how giving Americans choices on lightbulbs removing government intrusion in your selection of lighting is far more important than giving women the choice of what to do with their own reproductive systems or who people can marry, because that requires as much government intervention and removal of freedom as possible.

Down In The Treme

Treme was passed over by the Emmy crowd again.  I was disappointed, but I'm glad to know I wasn't the only one.



What a shame. "Treme" is easily among the best drama series on the air, and takes a backseat to no show for the breadth and excellence of its cast. One more thing that makes "Treme" praiseworthy: its uniqueness.
For viewers (and, apparently, a crop of Emmy voters) who don't know, "Treme" is set in post-Katrina New Orleans and follows a broad sample of its residents coping with the disaster's aftermath and otherwise living their lives. If "Seinfeld" was famously a show about nothing, "Treme" is a show about everything. Everything human. Which it manages to pull off without feeling overstuffed, overwrought or artificial.
"Treme" is not dense or dark or difficult, which were words that seemed to attach themselves to a previous extraordinary series created by David Simon. Instead, "Treme" is hopeful and, befitting its setting, filled with music and stout-heartedness.


There's no doubt I'm a fan.  Even if I wasn't, I would definitely give a nod to the fact that it's different.  It is cast realistically (not everyone is a six six and beautiful) and it isn't packed with drama to the point that you feel tired and used up afterwards.  Like real life there are big events and small, and not everything is a huge powder keg.  It's real, it's interesting, and it's unique.  It deserves some recognition.

[UPDATE: Zandar]  And Bon is right about Treme, it's often a heart-rending show.  HBO is consistently excellent with dramas and has been for decades. The network did get nods for Game of Thrones however, and Peter Dinklage was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Tyrion Lannister.  And if Dinklage gets robbed here too, I'm going to have to go have some words with the Emmy people. 

Plus One

Though just a few days old the social network Google+ already connects more than 10 million people as Larry Page of Google announced together with the company results of Q2 2011.
Page was happy about the astonishing responses to Google+. He called this product the kind of service the company will offer in the future. It should be easy to navigate and easy to use. Among the features of Google+ Circle and Hangout are important to him, because they reflect interactions from real life. His company will development products everyone will use twice a day, "like a tooth brush" the founder and CEO Page said.
I'm liking Google+ more and more.  I now use Facebook for my personal connections and Google+ for my writing, geekery and music. The integration allows me to make the most of my site and Facebook keeps my professional and personal lives separate.  It's an ideal solution so far, and I look forward to the development of new features.  The basics are so far a solid hit.


Anyone who wants to follow me can find me under Bon The Geek.  

No Dealing On The Debt Ceiling, Part 36

So what's the endgame on the debt ceiling?  What I've been reading tells me that people are no longer worried about who wins, but who loses with the least amount of damage to their chances in 2012.

What's more disturbing is that I'm seeing this play out on the right as Megan McArdle actually applies logical discourse (and Glenn Reynolds agrees with her)...

Podhoretz reads a Quinnipiac poll showing that by a margin of 48-34, the public is going to blame Republicans and not Obama if we don’t raise the debt ceiling, and joins the ranks of the Washington sellouts . . . . Voters are telling pollsters they’re going to blame the Republicans for the shutdown. And the spending cuts you’re going to do won’t even be that popular with the tea party, who aren’t much more enthusiastic about Medicare/Medicaid cuts than the rest of the country.
To me that sounds like “huge Democratic victory in 2012″. I know, I know–if it’s so “great for Democrats”, why aren’t they urging this course? Well, one school of thought says that they are–and neatly maneuvering the blame onto the GOP, thanks to the tea party’s very vocal intransigence. But if that’s a little too Machiavellian for your taste, the simpler answer is that this can be lose-lose. If we shut down the government, key social programs get hurt, the economy contracts, and the Democrats have to cut spending in a recession in order to make the budget balance after this little contretemps raises our interest rates. But the fact that the Democrats are worse off doesn’t mean that the Republicans are better off. The Democrats can lose while the Republicans lose even bigger.


...on the left from Matthew Yglesias...

This isn’t a sudden “shutdown.” Nor is is true that we have to default on obligations to our bondholders. Rather, it means that government outlays are now limited by the quantity of inbound tax revenue. But for a while, the people administering the federal government (to wit Barack Obama and Timothy Geithner) will be able to selectively stiff people. So the right strategy is to start stiffing people Republicans care about. When bills to defense contractors come due, don’t pay them. Explain they’ll get 100 percent of what they’re owed when the debt ceiling is raised. Don’t make some farm payments. Stop sending Medicare reimbursements. Make the doctors & hospitals, the farmers and defense contractors, and the currently elderly bear the inconvenient for a few weeks of uncertain payment schedules. And explain to the American people that the circle of people who need to be inconvenienced will necessarily grow week after week until congress gives in. Remind people that the concessions the right is after mean the permanent abolition of Medicare, followed by higher taxes on the middle to finance additional tax cuts for the rich. 

And from the more objective center from Nate Silver crunching his numbers.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Republicans won’t be able to extract any concessions at all out of the Democrats. It’s possible that the White House — which has been risk-averse in recent months as it has focused on Mr. Obama’s re-election — might not be willing to take the chance of something going wrong. It’s possible that the White House could give the Republicans some concessions that they viewed as minor, inevitable, or actually desirable from a political and policy standpoint.

But Mr. Boehner may face just as much risk as Mr. Obama, if not more. He has promised his more conservative members that he will extract significant concessions from the Democrats before he agrees to an increase in the debt limit. A White House that was willing to play hardball could put him to the test, and perhaps cause a substantial loss of face.

Everything I'm seeing is now involving not "Can we make a deal?" but "How badly will the inevitable deal be for both sides, and how far into the Wall Street technical default market crash scenario do we have to get in order to get said deal?"

In other words, both sides are going to lose.  One side will probably lose worse than the other.  But the American people in the middle?  We're no longer discussing if voters going to be hurt by this, but how badly they will be and who they will take it out on.

Pretty depressing, I know.

[UPDATE]  CNN finally discovers that not only is the Tea Party fine with destroying the economy by not raising the debt ceiling, but that they are making it known that no deal can possibly be acceptable.   Hey CNN, welcome to 2009.

The Pain In Spain

I've talked about the Greek Fire spreading to Ireland, Britain, Portugal, and Italy.  The latest target in the ongoing European financial crisis is now Spain, where five banks have failed the latest round of bank stress tests.

Five Spanish lenders, including Banco Pastor SA (PAS) and Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo (CAM), failed this year’s round of European Union stress tests after regulators found they didn’t have enough capital to withstand a recession scenario.

Unnim and CatalunyaCaixa, two Catalan savings banks groups, and Grupo Caja3 also failed the tests under the main results category set by the European Banking Authority, according to results published on the websites of Spain’s commercial and savings banks associations. The banks, which were short a combined 1.56 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of capital, according to the EBA, won’t need to raise funds because they have extra reserves and bonds that convert into shares to absorb losses, the Bank of Spain said.

Spanish lenders make up more than a quarter of the 90 European institutions tested by the EBA as banks and regulators step up efforts to convince investors they can withstand a three-year property crash and soaring funding costs. The government earlier this year imposed new minimum capital requirements to speed up mergers of struggling lenders as the Bank of Spain also forced them to report more details of loans linked to real estate. 

As Spain's version of the US housing depression continues,  Spain's banks are deep in the red from loans gone bad.  Spanish law doesn't allow homeowners to walk away from mortgages, and that's the only thing keeping Spanish banks from immediately imploding.

Similar to Ireland, whose credit rating was cut to non- investment grade this week by Moody’s Investors Service, Spain’s economic crisis was driven by a credit-fuelled property bubble that burst. The housing boom that ended in 2008 left Spanish banks with 313 billion euros ($441 billion) in loans related to real estate activity as of June, according to the Bank of Spain.

The number of foreclosed homes advertised by Idealista.com, Spain’s largest real-estate website, has risen 10-fold to 30,000 in three years. The properties are valued at about 4.6 billion euros and owned by 40 banks.

If the banks had to assume all the losses resulting from the bad mortgages they granted during the property boom, the whole financial system would collapse,” Jesus Encinar, Idealista.com’s chief executive officer, said in an interview. 

That's leaving Spanish homeowners and taxpayers with the bill, and they're angry.  Very, very angry.  To the point where Spanish politicians are scrambling to provide homeowner relief legislation before elections in 2012.  They're passing more of the pain in Spain to the banks, but now that's revealed the foundation of sand that these banks are built on.  In other words, Spain's in real trouble.

If you thought the US housing bubble was bad, the Spanish one was far worse.  Real estate prices more than tripled across the country from the late 90's.  It was like California here, only across the entire country.  Foreclosures are now flooding the market and driving housing prices down further, and Spanish foreclosure laws are leaving people homeless and still owing tens, if not hundreds of thousands of euros to the banks.  Spanish banks got even greedier than the US ones, making subprime loans to people they knew couldn't pay.  The result is that homeowners and banks are going to be hurting badly for years.

Spanish banks may need to raise as much as 4 billion euros of extra capital if homeowners are given the right to cancel mortgage contracts without being saddled with the debt, according to New York-based management-consulting firm Oliver Wyman. This could force lenders to add 400,000 unwanted properties to their balance sheets.

Home prices may fall by an additional 20 percent in the next four years before bottoming out, R.R. de Acuna & Asociados, a Madrid-based real-estate consulting firm, said at a briefing last month. The company estimates there are about 1.5 million unsold homes, which won’t be absorbed for another six years. 

In other words, the Spanish economy is completely screwed and will remain that way for a very long time.  It's going to be an anvil around the EU's neck, and it may be enough to pull the entire bloc under.

StupidiNews, Weekend Edition!

Friday, July 15, 2011

Last Call

And then the air was filled with the sound of a million wingnuts rending their garments and gnashing their teeth.

Investigations are progressing into the U.S. operations of News Corp after the UK phone hacking scandal, U.S. Attorney-General Eric H. Holder said in Australia on Friday.

"There have been members of Congress in the United States who have asked us to investigate those same allegations and we are progressing in that regard using the appropriate Federal law enforcement agencies," Holder told reporters.


The Obama justice department investigating the parent company of FOX News.

Let that sink in for a moment what that means to the conspiracy-obsessed people who think Holder is coming for their guns and precious bodily fluids.

Oh, and the CEO of Rupert Murdoch's Dow Jones, owner of the Wall Street Journal, Les Hinton, just resigned.

It's turning into a bad, bad day for the guys at FOX.
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