That dead cat bounce, it's a funny thing. Dow up 302. Oil drops, the dollar getting stronger. Good, right?
Not if the dollar is strong because other world currencies are taking a beating. Asia is now starting to feel the global slowdown. The greenback looks good now, but as other countries buy less dollars due to their own economic troubles, the dollar will sink, oil will rise, and markets will fall.
The problems behind the slowdown are still there, weak housing, credit crunches, debt explosions and a soft labor market. It'll get worse soon.
Much worse. PS, that $30 drop in oil in 3 weeks? Speculators bailing. What changed in supply and demand from six weeks ago? Nothing that would justify a 20% drop in oil. Unless it was being used as a hedge against the dollar. Lemmings bailed, oil drops as dollar gets stronger.
That'll reverse soon as the world catches up. And oil will go right back up another $30.
Remember, the lowest gas prices in the last two years were during the first week of November 2006...mid-term elections. GOP still lost.
Friday, August 8, 2008
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