Thursday, September 25, 2008

Four Scenarios

There are basically four outcomes for Uberbailout as far as Obama and McSame are concerned, I list them in order of likely occurance.

1) Both vote for it. This favors McSame, as it takes away any attacks Obama can make on the economy. It becomes more or less impossible at that point for Obama to go after McSame on the Wall Street mess after voting to give $700 billion to Wall Street. Even if the Democrats finagle the deal down to $150 billion or whatever, it's still UberBailout and the voters will hate it across the board. It will basically arrest Obama's momentum cold, which is what McSame badly needs right now in order to have any chance of winning.

Evidence for: Wall Street lobbyists and Preznitman have made it clear this needs to pass, and the Dems fold like lawn chairs when it comes to anything tough.
Evidence against: Obama is smarter than this, but still badly outnumbered.

2) Both vote against it but it passes anyway. This favors Obama for the same reason both for it favors McSame, it preserves the current status quo of the last week: Obama keeps on kicking McSame's ass on the economy and especially if the UberBailout passes it turns into "Throw the bums out".

Evidence for: Obama and McSame mutually benefit, as does Wall Street.
Evidence against: Congressional Dems and Bush do not. I doubt they will throw themselves on the pyre for bipartisan unity, and the whole deal could come completely apart, pissing off Wall Street. That's something that just won't happen. Wall Street lobbyists aren't going to take the risk, and neither are Congressional members on either side of the aisle.

3) One votes for, the other against. Political suicide and the end of the election for whoever does, the White House for whoever doesn't.

Evidence for: If either side wants to throw the towel in, this is how to do it. Also, if either side really DOES have some absolutely voodoo deadly evidence on the other, this is the honorable way out to fall on your sword for the country. The loser goes down with the bill, the winner gets to vote against it, and our President is decided five weeks ahead of time.
Evidence against: Politicians never play to lose at this level, but still, I have this higher than Option 4 for a reason.

4) The UberBailout Deal Blows Up. No bill is passed and Congress goes home. The taxpayer is spared...for now. McSame goes all MAVERICK and refuses to vote for it, Obama refuses to commit political suicide as outlined in Option #3 and the entire deal falls apart.

Evidence for: Anybody who votes for this thing is in serious danger of losing their job in November, and hey, the markets are still gonna be there. Plus, McSame is still crazy.
Evidence against: Wall Street will financially castrate everybody they can find and say that Congress left 'em no choice. The news is full of stories at this hour that a deal has more or less been reached. The economy really does do the Jenga tower in an earthquake thing and a much uglier bill has to be passed in January, or Bush summons everybody in December to pass Super Hyper UberBailout Champion Edition: The World Warriors or something. Tent cities, riots, martial law...you know, all the things I'd like to see avoided on general principle.

So, in conclusion: Yeah, I see option 1 there as most likely, which is McSame Plan B in action, but the actions the McSame campaign took this week will of course require them to do something else completely batshit crazy in a couple of weeks once Obama starts regaining the lead.

Then again...McSame is crazy. Logic may not have anything to do with it.

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