Thursday, September 25, 2008

Well, That Was Just An Estimate You See

We took a look at your economy like you asked, ma'am, and our more detailed repair estimate is $700 billion $1.2 trillion.

The banking system needs another $500 billion to survive beyond the $700 billion rescue plan being contemplated by Congress, said Pimco founder Bill Gross.

Gross said on CNBC that the government bailout plan will help free up bank balance sheets so they can start lending again, but will provide only about $50 billion in real capital to the system.

"The plan goes far but it doesn't go far enough in terms of recapitalization," he said. "The banking system and the investment banking system in total really requires about $500 billion more. Where that comes from is still up in the air."

The Federal Reserve will need to step in to quell fears of counterparty risk-- the worry that one partner in a deal won't hold up its end--and provide assurance that it will be a clearinghouse to make sure transactions get done, Gross said.

"There's a lack of trust anywhere in terms of other counterparties," he said. "The Fed to a certain extent has to assume this level of counterparty risk. It has to be a clearinghouse. Otherwise things don't get done."

On the economy, he predicted tough sledding in 2009, with an unemployment rate of 7 percent that he called "not tragic but certainly not good for the millions of Americans who are going to be out of jobs."

There's an inherent danger with the predictions of the guys who screwed up this badly in the first place, and that goes all the way up from Wall Street to King Henry and Helicopter Ben to Nameless One and Preznitman.

The inherent trust problem is what the American people have with the people who got us into this mess in the first damn place. "Hey, we're really sorry about your job loss, we had to reduce headcount so we could keep our country club dues. But we'll be thinking about you guys when we use your tax money for our company, because really the only other choice would be to fire ourselves instead of just you."

Wall Street's so happy that the Dow is up 200 points right now. They are confident they'll get everything they want and more out of the pockets of the American people, and that there's nothing we can do about it.

And of course the best part is $1.2 trillion will invariably turn into more trillions and more trillions. It's the ultimate corporate welfare package, and we're paying for it.

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