Tuesday, January 6, 2009

The Low, Low Price Of $8 Trillion

CNN has calculated the current cost of the bailout from Bear Stearns to Obama's simulus package and come up with eight trillion dollars.
"Monetary stimulus alone is not enough - it must be combined with fiscal stimulus if you want more bang for your buck," he noted.

But the new program, which Obama aides have said could total $775 billion, will also weigh heavily on the ballooning federal deficit. The current fiscal year is barely a few months old and already the government is running a deficit exceeding $400 billion -- nearly the same amount as all of last year. Many economists believe it will top $1 trillion in the end.

Some say that the benefits of massive spending outweigh the cost of inaction.

"While it seems like quite a lot, we don't really need to focus on the cost due to the depth of the recession," said Mark Vitner, economist with Wachovia.

Others, while saying that government action is needed, question the vast sums that are being allocated and proposed.

"The government says it can spend the money better than you can, but that hasn't been the case in the past," said Bill Beach, director of the center for data analysis at the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation. "That will really show up when they have to raise taxes in the future to make up for the increasing deficit."

If we've thrown that much money at the economy already and we're still very much expected to have an even worse 2009 and 2010, there's something fundamentally wrong with both Bush and Obama's assumptions on the economy. Obama's plan just isn't going to work. It will soften the blow somewhat, but the reality is the massive deficit we'll be carrying from this will only serve to slow down the economy even more in the future. As much as I hate to agree with anyone from the Heritage Foundation ever, Obama is going to have to raise taxes at some point, and raise them significantly.

We're looking at a very long process that may stretch a decade or more.

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