Man I Hate Being Right

I called 600k jobs lost, official numbers 598k, U3 figure up to 7.6% and climbing. The U-6 numbers are goddamn frightening in particular, showing a seasonally adjusted rate of 13.9% (which is bad) but a non-seasonally adjusted U-6 number of ->15.4%<- of the workforce out of work or underemployed. The difference between the two is awesome, in every epic sense of that word. It's overwhelming. What it means is if you remove seasonal hiring and yearly adjustments, our economy is in far worse shape than imagined.

That's a nearly 2% jump in One. F'ckin'. Month. Take out the seasonal adjustments for January and the U-3 is a staggering 8.5% right now.

We are in an inordinate amount of trouble right now. 2.5 million net jobs have been lost in the last five months. There is no sign whatsoever that this is going to slow down.

The U-6 numbers in the last 12 months have gone from 9.9% to 15.4%. A five point jump in unemployment in one year. That hasn't happened since the 1930's.

Crunch time is now here. We're playing for the difference between deep recession and major depression, and the clock's ticking now. As it is...we may be too late. These numbers, if they continue, will mean by January 2010 we could very well be looking at the 20% U-6 numbers I predicted.

Cheery thought, huh.