Quagmire

WaPo correspondent Tom Ricks talks about why we'll still be in Iraq after the Obama administration.

Many of those closest to the situation in Iraq expect a full-blown civil war to break out there in the coming years. "I don't think the Iraqi civil war has been fought yet," one colonel told me. Others were concerned that Iraq was drifting toward a military takeover. Counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen worried that the classic conditions for a military coup were developing -- a venal political elite divorced from the population lives inside the Green Zone, while the Iraqi military outside the zone's walls grows both more capable and closer to the people, working with them and trying to address their concerns.

I'm not 100% sure if I buy this. While I can certainly see Iraq not being strong enough to maintain stability on its own, the real power in Iraq is coming from Iran (which is why Obama's overtures to Iran have been excellent news.) If Iran can be convinced to be a positive influence in stabilizing Iraq, then we can make serious headway towards a lasting peace in the region.

If we don't, Iran will continue to foment rebellion in Iraq. The key to winning Iraq, where "winning" means "a stable country with a working government" is in fact in Tehran, not Baghdad.

Having said that, Petreaus and Odierno will never leave the country. On the other hand, we really do have much larger problems to worry about right now here in the US.