If you want to see what it really takes to boot the economy out of a debt trap, look at the large public works program, otherwise known as World War II, that ended the Great Depression. The war didn’t just lead to full employment. It also led to rapidly rising incomes and substantial inflation, all with virtually no borrowing by the private sector. By 1945 the government’s debt had soared, but the ratio of private-sector debt to G.D.P. was only half what it had been in 1940. And this low level of private debt helped set the stage for the great postwar boom.Once again, I wonder how long it will be (and which party will propose it first) that a war should be used as the ultimate employment stimulus package. I don't think Obama would ever do something like that personally despite all the paranoia over his national service plan. On the other hand I can easily see the GOP pushing for this, especially when military recruitment is already on the way up in this lousy economy.
Since nothing like that is on the table, or seems likely to get on the table any time soon, it will take years for families and firms to work off the debt they ran up so blithely. The odds are that the legacy of our time of illusion — our decade at Bernie’s — will be a long, painful slump.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Zandar's Thought Of The Day
The Kroog:
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