Al Versus Norm, Part 513

As expected, Norm Coleman's shot at catching Al Franken's 225-vote lead just got a stake through the heart.

The court will now review these 400 ballots to make sure they met every single requirement of the law. Some of them will definitely be counted, but an unknown number are simply being reviewed because the court needs the genuine article to figure out an ambiguous point.

Looking at the math, it's very bad for Norm Coleman. Even if all 400 ballots were counted and went more to Coleman, it probably wouldn't produce enough swing to overturn Franken's 225-vote lead. A more likely guess would be that some percentage are counted, and they break to Franken -- after all, the court systematically rejected Coleman's pleas for lenient standards.

Two weeks ago, Norm Coleman's lead trial lawyer predicted that the trial would likely end with Al Franken winning, and with a slightly larger lead than before -- then come the appeals. This new court order certainly seems to corroborate that prediction.

Of course, all this legal kabuki is pointless. We all knew this was going to federal court and to the Supreme Court if Coleman doesn't win. It never mattered if Minnesota was represented by two senators. It only matters that the GOP gets a Supreme Court level legal precedent on voting that favors them.

At worst for the GOP, they cost the Dems a vital vote in the Senate until further notice. If the Dems try to seat Franken, the GOP will go to the mattresses and will force a Constitutional crisis into the Supreme Court's hands anyway, and with the GOP guaranteed at least 4 votes in their favor on any voting precedent, they're willing to risk it.

There's no way Obama can make the Republicans pay on this. It's all win for them. If Al Franken would be the 60th vote overcoming a filibuster on health care, climate change, EFCA (unlikely) or even the budget, then the GOP have scored a huge victory. They win. Only the voters can make the Republicans pay, and the Republicans are doing everything they can to make sure the voters have as little to do with the outcome of an election as humanly possible.

Even if Franken is seated, even if the Supreme Court refuses to hear Coleman's case, I fully believe the GOP would in fact do everything they can to disrupt, stall, and gridlock the Senate until Franken was removed...I can even see GOP governors like Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry and Mark Sanford refuse to comply with any laws passed with Franken in the Senate. The GOP will never accept Franken as legitimate. Ever.

They will attack him and attack him. They will demand he resign and a special election be called. They will attack the Democrats as evil fascists. The rhetoric will run lava hot. And I can see, in that climate of hate and fear and anger, I can see something truly horrendous and tragic happening as a result of a person taking these words too far.

Now, maybe I'm nuts. This is certainly a worst-case scenario. But given where we are in 2009, I think expecting the worst-case scenario is entirely justified.