The Road To Car Tomb, Part 3

It took less than 24 hours for Chrysler and GM to telegraph their moves in the post-Obama auto industry. Chrysler is making every effort to join with Italian automaker Fiat, but many analysts remain skeptical, and even the Obama administration is hinting strongly that Chrysler will be opting for bankruptcy reorganization:

Chrysler LLC may face an “impossible goal” in completing an alliance with Fiat SpA and meeting an Obama administration deadline to erase debt and win more union concessions by April 30.

Chrysler got its blueprint for the next month yesterday from President Barack Obama’s task force, which said that $6 billion in new aid hinges on “extinguishing the vast majority” of outstanding secured debt and new givebacks from the United Auto Workers.

Meeting those requirements would require help from lenders, which haven’t negotiated in the three months since Chrysler got its U.S. loans and have little incentive to do so because they would be paid off first in bankruptcy. Even Obama’s autos panel suggested Chrysler might fare better by reorganizing in court.

“It is an impossible goal,” said Sheldon Stone, a partner at Amherst Partners LLC, a restructuring firm in Birmingham, Michigan. “The likelihood is that the 30-day period is going to allow Chrysler to get their house in order for a bankruptcy.”

Meanwhile, GM's new CEO is making no effort to hide where he sees the company going in 60 days: straight to bankruptcy court.

General Motors's new chief executive told CNBC that filing for Bankruptcy may be the best option for the struggling automaker.

In a taped interview to be aired tonight on NBC Nightly News, Fritz Henderson said that because of greater demands from the Obama administration to restructure, GM is considering the bankruptcy option. The auto giant previously had ruled out such a move, saying it would discourage people from buying GM cars.

Henderson's comments came after President Obama bluntly rejected turnaround plans by GM and Chrysler and demanded that both companies make fresh concessions in order to get more federal aid.

Henderson, who was GM's president and chief operating officer, was named the new CEO after the government forced the resignation of CEO Rick Wagoner on Sunday. GM's board is also being restructured.

Henderson told reporters that the company would still prefer to restructure outside of court, but the level of support Washington is offering would help the company quickly restructure through bankruptcy.

So, that's basically it then. It's looking like the Big Three will become the Big One in a couple months, and the irony is government restructuring to make GM and Chrysler leaner and meaner could actually end up putting Ford at a major disadvantage:

Ford Motor Co., the only U.S. automaker not taking federal aid, could lose its competitive edge if President Barack Obama is successful in slimming down General Motors Corp. with lower labor costs, debt and dealers.

Obama gave GM 60 days to come up with a new strategy to cut costs with its union, slash debt with bondholders and reduce dealers and brands. If GM does all that, it may have significantly lower costs than Ford, said Lexington, Massachusetts-based auto analyst John Wolkonowicz of IHS Global Insight.

“This really pulled the rug out from under Ford,” said Wolkonowicz, a former Ford product planner. “The government wants to have GM survive as a leaner and greener company and Ford is going to need further restructuring in order to compete.”

It's conceivable that there may not be any major American automakers by the end of the year. What will replace the Detroit automakers? How will it affect the rest of the US car and truck market? This is uncharted stuff here, folks. Then again, these days there's a lot of uncharted stuff going on.