Epic Epidemiological Perspective Fail

As Zandarmom (a hospital nurse for 25 plus years) keeps reminding me, regular good ol' seasonal flu has already killed thousands of Americans this year and will continue to do so every year. Influenza kills 36,000 every year just in the US. The trick with Swine Flu (and the pork industry really, really wants people to STOP CALLING THAT ALREADY) is that there's no vaccine for this stuff yet, and it has shown the ability to kill otherwise healthy people in Mexico.

Making an effective vaccine may take until September at the earliest.

Experts say that even if cases of the new swine flu disappear with warm weather, the virus may return — perhaps with a vengeance — next winter.

In light of that threat, the Obama administration appears close to announcing a decision to make a vaccine against swine flu as early as this fall.

Normally it takes six months to make a regular flu vaccine. An effective vaccine protects most people from getting the flu. It would be the primary weapon against a flu pandemic — if it can be made, distributed and gotten into people's arms in time.

Bruce Gellin, the nation's top vaccine official, says the plan is to make enough swine flu vaccine for all 304 million Americans by September — only five months from now. Gellin is deputy assistant secretary for Health and Human Services for vaccinations, immunizations and infectious diseases.

Gellin says the first decision points on whether to go ahead will be in early June. That's when manufacturers would be told to switch over from making regular seasonal flu vaccine to a special swine flu vaccine. Fortunately, he says, the nation's flu vaccine makers will be finished by then with making all the components for next season's regular flu vaccine.

After swine flu vaccine production begins, Gellin says, "as you continue to watch the situation, the question would be whether you tell them to keep going or to turn it off sometime."

"If they kept going, you would expect that vaccine to be available … by early- to mid-September," Gellin predicts. That's when it would be ready to ship to doctors, hospitals and clinics.

So relax...regular flu is 36,000 times more deadly, and you've been living with that for how long now? Best case scenario, this stuff goes dormant as the weather warms up and by the time the next flu season rolls around we'll have a vaccine.

Don't panic...down that road is EPIC FAIL.