The GOP, The Budget, And You

BooMan theorizes that by unanimously voting against Obama's budget in both the House and the Senate, the GOP will be frozen out of universal health care, a mistake they'll be paying for for a long, long time.

If they had prevailed on this issue of budget reconciliation, they could have adopted a strategy of helping to pass a health care bill this year, but wielding the threat of a filibuster to kill off a public option. They could take some credit for expanding health care coverage and still protect the HMO's and other private insurers.

But they didn't try to lure the Democrats into a trap. They telegraphed their intentions to be rawly partisan and to act in bad faith, and that sealed their fate. The Democrats will simply enact health care through the budget reconciliation process in the fall where they will only need 50 rather than 60 votes to pass it. The Republicans no longer need to be consulted on any aspect of the legislation because there is no need for any of their votes and little incentive to give them any avenue for taking credit. They shut themselves out of the process of creating the most significant legislation in three generations. They didn't even try to outsmart the Democrats.

However, I think BooMan is wrong. The GOP doesn't have to outsmart the Dems. Obama's final budget vote will be scuttled (and health care and cap-and-trade along with it) by Evan Bayh's Conservadems.

Evan Bayh's crew is exactly who I'm worried about. I forsee them holding up the final bill at 49 votes and taking the country hostage in order to kill cap-and-trade, health care, and everything else. The GOP clearly anticipates this, and then saying "Well now Mr. President, you told us our votes didn't matter. Your own party killed your budget. Now, it's our turn."

For instance, if Evan Bayh can get the same 9 other Dems to go along with all 41 Republicans that went along with the budget amendment to give a $250 billion estate tax cut over ten years, then he'll have the 51 votes he needs to hold Obama's budget hostage.

If you're curious, the other 9 Dems were Max Baucus (D-MT), Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Patty Murray (D-WA), Bill Nelson (D-FL), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Mark Pryor (D-AR), and Jon Tester (D-MT).

If Bayh can get these same votes on the final budget, he wins. He can then hold the budget hostage and strip health care, cap-and-trade, and anything else out of the budget he can. If health care and climate change legislation die, it's going to be because the Democrats killed it.

If these ten Dems are willing to give a $250 billion tax break to the richest Americans, money that could be used for universal health care instead, they are the ones who will turn around and say "Sorry, we can't possibly fund health care at this time." They are the ones who will kill it in the reconciliation process.

Obama needs to watch his back. The GOP isn't killing him. His own party is.

[UPDATE] Ezra Klein recounts the long, strange career of Evan Bayh. New tag, because I specifically complain about this douchebag enough: Evan F'ckin Bayh.