Al Versus Norm, Part 1065

The GOP is more determined than ever to keep Al Franken from ever being seated now that Franken would represent the 60th Democratic Senator.

“This makes it pretty darn important,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of the race following Specter’s switch. “I expect they will pursue the appeals until they are exhausted, whenever that may be. … I would assume if they were unsuccessful in the Minnesota Supreme Court, there may very well be an appeal to the United States Supreme Court.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are planning a full-scale public pressure campaign to force Coleman to concede should the court affirm a three-judge panel’s ruling that Al Franken is the winner. Democrats have already begun using the race’s elevated importance to raise money, and they’re mounting a fresh campaign to pressure Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Republican, to sign an election certificate once the state Supreme Court rules.

And once again, Gov. Pawlenty is the key to what happens from here. No matter what, if he doesn't sign the certificate (and there is zero reason to expect he will when Franken's win is upheld and Coleman goes to federal court) Franken won't be seated. Forcing it through would be ham-handed, tone-deaf, and pretty stupid on the part of the Dems. But Franken's team is smart.

Pawlenty’s role is central to the dispute, and the question of whether Pawlenty must sign the election certificate after the ruling by the state’s highest court is unclear. Coleman’s lawyers say there is a legal gray area as to whether Pawlenty should sign the certificate if there is a federal appeal pending, and the governor – who is eying a run for the White House in 2012 — says that he’ll follow the direction of the courts.

Pawlenty’s handling of the matter could endear him to the GOP base, but it might also infuriate some Minnesota voters if he seeks reelection as governor next year.

Pawlenty, however, may have no choice in the matter. As part of the fight before the state’s high court, where oral arguments are scheduled for June 1, Franken’s team is likely to ask for a ruling on whether Pawlenty is required to sign an election certificate even if the loser appeals the case to federal court, according to Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“If the court does that, there would be no opportunity for circumvention by Pawlenty,” Menendez said Thursday.

Should the courts rule in favor of Franken on both the win and the certificate, Franken could be seated next month. If not, this could drag on for months, if not years.