Mitt-igating Circumstances

As Steve Benen points out, goofy Village Centrist types are putting forth The Mittster as Ted Kennedy's replacement. This is a pretty horrible idea for Massachusetts, Democrats, Mitt Romney, Republicans, and pretty much everybody, but then again that makes it the perfect Village Centrist Stupid Idea.

This is certainly an ... what's the word ... imaginative proposal. But I don't think it's especially realistic.

First, Romney ran for governor in Massachusetts as a center-left, pro-choice, tolerant New England Republican. He left office after just one term as a conservative with an approval rating in the 30s. Which version of Romney would run for Kennedy's seat? He couldn't run to the right; he'd lose. He couldn't run to the left; it would ruin his presidential ambitions.

Second, Roff may have missed it, but while President Obama's approval ratings aren't as strong as they were, he maintains a 73% approval rating in Massachusetts. It doesn't look as if the Bay State would be anxious to replace Ted Kennedy with a harsh, reflexive opponent of the White House.

And third, by all appearances, Mitt Romney isn't actually a resident of Massachusetts.

Other than these minor details, though, it's a great idea. Run, Mittster, run.

As it is, I forsee Mitt having to distance himself as far as humanly possible from Massachusetts mainly because he was the governor who signed the often-attacked MassCare program into law. That alone puts a massive bullseye on his forehead for every other 2012 primary opponent Wingnut crackpot out there to aim at. The practical upshot is primary voters will realize about, well, now that the only Republican with more than a snowman's chance in Death Valley is Romney, meaning he will be primaried to death by the same intransigent wingnut knuckleheads who'll see Romney as a complete heathen.

In other words, 2012 should be a glorious disaster. Even better, there's no way Romney wins in 2010, either...and to win he'd have to go so far to the left that he'd never even get out of the gate in 2012.

[UPDATE 1:38 PM] Nate Silver runs the numbers on any Republican's chances to win Ted Kennedy's seat, and comes up with "very probably not."

Speculation aside, Mitt Romney is probably smart enough to know this (whatever else you might say about him, Romney's not lacking for brainpower). Romney has a pretty good brand and probably 75 percent-plus name recognition among likely voters. And last I checked, you don't have to be popular in Massachusetts to become elected President. Running for the Senate seat is virtually a pure downside play for him.

As for other Republicans in Massachusetts, their prospects don't figure to be much better. This is mostly because there aren't very many of them. Something like 40 percent of U.S. Senators had been U.S. Representatives at the time of their election -- but all 10 of Massachusetts' U.S. Reps are Democrats. Statewide office holders like Lieutenant Governors and Attorney Generals have also had their share of success when running for Senate -- but Massachusetts' A.G., Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State and State Auditor are all Democrats. State Treasurer Timothy Cahill is a Democrat-turned-independent, but he's expected to run for governor instead. This, incidentally, is another layer of protection that the Democrats have -- any Republican worth his salt should be trying to knock off the unpopular Deval Patrick, rather than trying to win Ted Kennedy's old seat. Unless William Weld is interested -- and Weld endorsed Barack Obama and might vote with the President anyway on issues like health care and cap-and-trade -- this one is probably a pipe dream for Republicans.

Seems to be some very reasonable logic there.